Conviction57.3
SPY weight1.8%
+ Tilt-0.03 pp
= Target1.7%
Current weight (drives NAV)1.7%vs target +0.00 pp
11
Sectors Tracked
2026-05-14
Tracking Since
Day 127
of Daily Monitoring
2026-09-17
Current Date
Alpha vs SPY, since launch
+4.45%
Vega total return minus SPY total return. Positive means Vega is ahead of the index.
Vega NAV
106.80
SPY NAV
102.34
Both NAVs start at 100 on the pilot launch date.
11 sectors
Current sector calls
Each card: SPY weight, plus Vega's tilt, equals Vega's target weight. Conviction and valuation on the side.
Conviction53.7
SPY weight10.0%
+ Tilt-0.46 pp
= Target9.5%
Current weight (drives NAV)9.5%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction55.7
SPY weight3.5%
+ Tilt-0.11 pp
= Target3.4%
Current weight (drives NAV)3.4%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction58.2
SPY weight12.1%
+ Tilt-0.16 pp
= Target11.9%
Current weight (drives NAV)11.9%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction65.8
SPY weight8.1%
+ Tilt+0.35 pp
= Target8.5%
Current weight (drives NAV)8.5%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction67.2
SPY weight37.9%
+ Tilt+2.05 pp
= Target40.0%
Current weight (drives NAV)40.0%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction51.7
SPY weight4.5%
+ Tilt-0.27 pp
= Target4.2%
Current weight (drives NAV)4.2%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction55.0
SPY weight1.8%
+ Tilt-0.06 pp
= Target1.7%
Current weight (drives NAV)1.7%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction57.7
SPY weight2.0%
+ Tilt-0.03 pp
= Target1.9%
Current weight (drives NAV)1.9%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction57.6
SPY weight9.3%
+ Tilt-0.16 pp
= Target9.1%
Current weight (drives NAV)9.1%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction46.7
SPY weight8.8%
+ Tilt-0.86 pp
= Target7.9%
Current weight (drives NAV)7.9%vs target +0.00 pp
SPY mix and Vega tilt
Where Vega is above or below SPY
SPY sector weight, Vega's tilt, Vega target weight, and Vega's current weight.
SPY sector weight + Tilt = Vega target weight. Target weight is where Vega wants to be today after applying its sector tilt. Current Vega weight is where the portfolio actually sits today; it can lag the target because Vega only rebalances when the gap is wide enough (rebalance band: 5 pp). Vega NAV is compounded using the current weight, so headline alpha vs SPY reflects executed positioning, not the model's intended target.
| Sector | SPY sector weight | Tilt vs SPY | Vega target weight | Current Vega weight | Vega view | Conviction | Valuation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MaterialsXLB | 1.8% | -0.03 ppLess than SPY | 1.7% | 1.7% | NEUTRAL | 57.3 | Cheap by EV/EBITDA |
| Communication ServicesXLC | 10.0% | -0.46 ppLess than SPY | 9.5% | 9.5% | UNDERWEIGHT | 53.7 | Cheap by PEG |
| EnergyXLE | 3.5% | -0.11 ppLess than SPY | 3.4% | 3.4% | UNDERWEIGHT | 55.7 | Cheap by EV/EBITDA |
| FinancialsXLF | 12.1% | -0.16 ppLess than SPY | 11.9% | 11.9% | UNDERWEIGHT | 58.2 | Expensive by P/B |
| IndustrialsXLI | 8.1% | +0.35 ppMore than SPY | 8.5% | 8.5% | OVERWEIGHT | 65.8 | Cheap by EV/EBITDA |
| Information TechnologyXLK | 37.9% | +2.05 ppMore than SPY | 40.0% | 40.0% | OVERWEIGHT | 67.2 | Cheap by PEG |
| Consumer StaplesXLP | 4.5% | -0.27 ppLess than SPY | 4.2% | 4.2% | UNDERWEIGHT | 51.7 | Cheap by P/E |
| Real EstateXLRE | 1.8% | -0.06 ppLess than SPY | 1.7% | 1.7% | UNDERWEIGHT | 55.0 | Expensive by Price/FFO |
| UtilitiesXLU | 2.0% | -0.03 ppLess than SPY | 1.9% | 1.9% | NEUTRAL | 57.7 | Cheap by P/E |
| Health CareXLV | 9.3% | -0.16 ppLess than SPY | 9.1% | 9.1% | UNDERWEIGHT | 57.6 | Expensive by P/E |
| Consumer DiscretionaryXLY | 8.8% | -0.86 ppLess than SPY | 7.9% | 7.9% | UNDERWEIGHT | 46.7 | Cheap by EV/EBITDA |
Recent events
Events noted by sector
Score impact is the model's recorded event effect for the sector.
| Date | Sector | Event noted | Source | Score impact | Sectors affected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | XLB | Silver price today, Thursday, September 17, 2026: Silver prices stay steady post Fed decision | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | XLB | Mortgage and refinance interest rates today, Thursday, September 17, 2026: Fixed rates tick upward | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | XLB | Best CD rates today, Thursday, September 17, 2026: Lock in up to 4.40% APY with a 2-year CD | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | XLE | A massive projected drawdown in global inventories is a primary bullish driver for crude spot prices and E&P margins. | news | +6.00 | 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | XLE | Significant new production sharing contracts and a $100B reconstruction plan represent major expansion opportunities for U.S. E&P and services firms. | news | +5.00 | 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | XLE | Sanctions on Russian energy typically constrain global supply, supporting higher crude spot prices for XLE constituents. | news | +3.00 | 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | XLF | Bitcoin and ethereum prices today, Thursday, September 17, 2026: Crypto prices move up following Fed's rate increase | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | XLF | Silver price today, Thursday, September 17, 2026: Silver prices stay steady post Fed decision | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | XLF | Best CD rates today, Thursday, September 17, 2026: Lock in up to 4.40% APY with a 2-year CD | news | -1.40 | 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | XLF | Gold price today, Thursday, September 17, 2026: Gold prices relatively stable following Fed rate increase | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | XLF | Mortgage and refinance interest rates today, Thursday, September 17, 2026: Fixed rates tick upward | news | +3.00 | 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | XLK | The partnership expansion and new AI POD for Splunk drive enterprise software demand and hyperscaler-adjacent hardware utilization. | news | +6.00 | 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | XLK | Significant regulatory litigation against Apple's ecosystem impacts its services revenue and hardware-software integration model. | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | XLRE | Silver price today, Thursday, September 17, 2026: Silver prices stay steady post Fed decision | news | -2.40 | 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | XLRE | Gold price today, Thursday, September 17, 2026: Gold prices relatively stable following Fed rate increase | news | -2.40 | 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | XLRE | Best CD rates today, Thursday, September 17, 2026: Lock in up to 4.40% APY with a 2-year CD | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | XLU | Best CD rates today, Thursday, September 17, 2026: Lock in up to 4.40% APY with a 2-year CD | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | XLV | Significant venture funding round with strategic participation from sector leader Eli Lilly indicates strong R&D capacity and pipeline health. | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | XLY | Federal safety probes into autonomous technology can delay product rollouts and impact Tesla's core automotive segment growth. | news | -7.20 | 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | XLY | Significant guidance cuts and negative comparable sales in specialty retail indicate weakening discretionary consumer spend. | news | -8.40 | 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | XLB | BHP reports copper contributing over half of EBITDA while Northern Star benefits from record gold prices, directly impacting top sector constituents. | news | +6.00 | 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | XLU | Gold price today, Thursday, September 17, 2026: Gold prices relatively stable following Fed rate increase | news | -3.60 | 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | XLC | The $17B settlement and mandatory time limits directly impact Meta's user engagement metrics and represent significant regulatory tail risk. | news | -15.60 | 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | XLC | Expansion into live events and sports is a strategic shift to increase ad inventory and cultural relevance for the streaming segment. | news | -1.40 | 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | XLE | Weekly EIA inventory draws below the 5-year range are a primary bullish macro trigger for crude prices and E&P margins. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | XLE | Depleted SPR levels reduce the government's ability to dampen price spikes, supporting a higher floor for crude spot prices. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | XLE | A build in refined product inventories (light ends) typically signals softening demand, which can compress refiner crack spreads. | news | -7.20 | 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | XLE | Strong fuel demand and tight global inventories are maintaining profitable crack spreads for refiners like PSX despite rising crude costs. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | XLF | Higher interest rates generally expand net interest margins for major banks like JPM and BAC by increasing the spread between loan yields and deposit costs. | news | +12.25 | 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | XLF | Increased regulatory scrutiny and reporting requirements for fraud increase compliance costs and operational risks for payment networks and banks. | news | -4.80 | 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | XLI | American Airlines' fleet reconfiguration and premium seat expansion are tied directly to new aircraft deliveries from Boeing, a key indicator for the aerospace sub-segment. | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | XLK | Major investments by Applied Materials and others in India expand the global semiconductor supply chain and manufacturing capacity. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | XLK | Expanding software support to RISC-V architectures broadens AMD's addressable market in data-center AI infrastructure. | news | +6.00 | 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | XLK | A potential JV or leasing deal would secure domestic memory supply for hyperscalers and boost MU/INTC-adjacent capacity. | news | +8.00 | 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | XLK | The partnership creates new edge-AI workloads and enterprise use cases for Nvidia's AI hardware and software stack. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | XLK | Integration with Microsoft Fabric drives enterprise software demand and cloud-adjacent automation services. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | XLP | PMI's strategic shift to smoke-free products directly impacts tobacco volumes and long-term top-line growth for a top-5 sector constituent. | news | +3.00 | 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | XLRE | A rise in the federal funds rate increases borrowing costs and cap rates, acting as a direct headwind to REIT valuations and FFO multiples. | news | -6.00 | 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | XLRE | Mortgage and refinance interest rates today, Thursday, September 17, 2026: Fixed rates tick upward | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | XLU | Regulatory challenges in California directly impact the authorized ROE and investability of major sector constituents. | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | XLU | Political shifts toward ending utility monopolies threaten the regulated rate-base model for companies like DTE and CMS. | news | -3.60 | 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | XLU | The AI-driven data center load growth is a primary macro trigger for merchant power producers like CEG and VST. | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | XLU | Large-scale LNG infrastructure projects drive long-term capex and earnings growth for integrated utilities like SRE. | news | +6.00 | 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | XLU | Silver price today, Thursday, September 17, 2026: Silver prices stay steady post Fed decision | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | XLU | Mortgage and refinance interest rates today, Thursday, September 17, 2026: Fixed rates tick upward | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | XLU | Bitcoin and ethereum prices today, Thursday, September 17, 2026: Crypto prices move up following Fed's rate increase | news | -1.20 | 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | XLV | Positive confirmatory data supports label maintenance and potential expansion for a key oncology asset. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | XLV | The partnership and cash runway extension support late-stage clinical development and potential regulatory filings. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | XLV | Clinical data supporting low-dose efficacy for LLY and NVO drugs could expand the patient pool and improve long-term adherence. | news | +3.00 | 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | XLV | Significant venture funding with participation from a top-weight constituent (LLY) signals healthy R&D pipeline activity. | news | +3.00 | 1 |