Conviction59.5
SPY weight1.9%
+ Tilt-0.12 pp
= Target1.8%
Current weight (drives NAV)1.8%vs target +0.00 pp
11
Sectors Tracked
2026-05-14
Tracking Since
Day 40
of Daily Monitoring
2026-06-22
Current Date
Alpha vs SPY, since launch
+4.50%
Vega total return minus SPY total return. Positive means Vega is ahead of the index.
Vega NAV
108.50
SPY NAV
103.99
Both NAVs start at 100 on the pilot launch date.
11 sectors
Current sector calls
Each card: SPY weight, plus Vega's tilt, equals Vega's target weight. Conviction and valuation on the side.
Conviction65.0
SPY weight10.0%
+ Tilt-0.27 pp
= Target9.8%
Current weight (drives NAV)9.6%vs target -0.11 pp
Conviction63.2
SPY weight3.1%
+ Tilt-0.12 pp
= Target3.0%
Current weight (drives NAV)3.2%vs target +0.19 pp
Conviction66.4
SPY weight12.0%
+ Tilt-0.21 pp
= Target11.8%
Current weight (drives NAV)11.4%vs target -0.39 pp
Conviction71.2
SPY weight8.8%
+ Tilt+0.14 pp
= Target8.9%
Current weight (drives NAV)8.9%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction80.4
SPY weight37.5%
+ Tilt+3.00 pp
= Target40.5%
Current weight (drives NAV)40.4%vs target -0.06 pp
Conviction52.2
SPY weight4.7%
+ Tilt-0.54 pp
= Target4.1%
Current weight (drives NAV)4.3%vs target +0.15 pp
Conviction63.7
SPY weight1.8%
+ Tilt-0.07 pp
= Target1.8%
Current weight (drives NAV)1.8%vs target +0.06 pp
Conviction63.4
SPY weight2.1%
+ Tilt-0.08 pp
= Target2.1%
Current weight (drives NAV)2.1%vs target +0.03 pp
Conviction58.3
SPY weight8.5%
+ Tilt-0.63 pp
= Target7.9%
Current weight (drives NAV)8.2%vs target +0.29 pp
Conviction56.0
SPY weight9.3%
+ Tilt-0.83 pp
= Target8.4%
Current weight (drives NAV)8.3%vs target -0.17 pp
SPY mix and Vega tilt
Where Vega is above or below SPY
SPY sector weight, Vega's tilt, Vega target weight, and Vega's current weight.
SPY sector weight + Tilt = Vega target weight. Target weight is where Vega wants to be today after applying its sector tilt. Current Vega weight is where the portfolio actually sits today; it can lag the target because Vega only rebalances when the gap is wide enough (rebalance band: 5 pp). Vega NAV is compounded using the current weight, so headline alpha vs SPY reflects executed positioning, not the model's intended target.
| Sector | SPY sector weight | Tilt vs SPY | Vega target weight | Current Vega weight | Vega view | Conviction | Valuation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MaterialsXLB | 1.9% | -0.12 ppLess than SPY | 1.8% | 1.8% | UNDERWEIGHT | 59.5 | Expensive by EV/EBITDA |
| Communication ServicesXLC | 10.0% | -0.27 ppLess than SPY | 9.8% | 9.6% | UNDERWEIGHT | 65.0 | Neutral by PEG |
| EnergyXLE | 3.1% | -0.12 ppLess than SPY | 3.0% | 3.2% | OVERWEIGHT | 63.2 | Cheap by EV/EBITDA |
| FinancialsXLF | 12.0% | -0.21 ppLess than SPY | 11.8% | 11.4% | UNDERWEIGHT | 66.4 | Expensive by P/B |
| IndustrialsXLI | 8.8% | +0.14 ppMore than SPY | 8.9% | 8.9% | OVERWEIGHT | 71.2 | Expensive by EV/EBITDA |
| Information TechnologyXLK | 37.5% | +3.00 ppMore than SPY | 40.5% | 40.4% | OVERWEIGHT | 80.4 | Neutral by PEG |
| Consumer StaplesXLP | 4.7% | -0.54 ppLess than SPY | 4.1% | 4.3% | UNDERWEIGHT | 52.2 | Cheap by P/E |
| Real EstateXLRE | 1.8% | -0.07 ppLess than SPY | 1.8% | 1.8% | NEUTRAL | 63.7 | Cheap by Price/FFO |
| UtilitiesXLU | 2.1% | -0.08 ppLess than SPY | 2.1% | 2.1% | NEUTRAL | 63.4 | Neutral by P/E |
| Health CareXLV | 8.5% | -0.63 ppLess than SPY | 7.9% | 8.2% | UNDERWEIGHT | 58.3 | Cheap by P/E |
| Consumer DiscretionaryXLY | 9.3% | -0.83 ppLess than SPY | 8.4% | 8.3% | UNDERWEIGHT | 56.0 | Cheap by EV/EBITDA |
Recent events
Events noted by sector
Score impact is the model's recorded event effect for the sector.
| Date | Sector | Event noted | Source | Score impact | Sectors affected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-22 | XLU | Mortgage and refinance interest rates today, Monday, June 22, 2026: Purchase and refinance rate spread grows | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-22 | XLU | Sempra's infrastructure strategy aligns with gas-fired generation and export dynamics which impact sector-wide gas pass-through. | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-22 | XLE | U.S. Treasury Yields Rise, Dollar Stable Amid Fed Rate-Hike Bets | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-22 | XLU | Best CD rates today, Monday, June 22, 2026: Lock in up to 4% APY | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-22 | XLU | Best high-yield savings interest rates today, Monday, June 22, 2026: Earn up to 4.10% APY | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-22 | XLF | Significant growth in net new assets and margin loan balances directly supports revenue growth for major capital markets and brokerage firms. | news | +5.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-22 | XLP | New leadership specifically tasked with the smoke-free push directly impacts PM's heated-tobacco volume growth strategy. | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-22 | XLV | Advancement of a lead oncology asset into late-stage Phase 3 trials is a critical catalyst for the biotech R&D pipeline. | news | +3.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-22 | XLC | Expanding video podcast content enhances user engagement and stickiness through lower-cost alternative programming compared to scripted originals. | news | +6.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-22 | XLE | The restart of a critical fuel artery stabilizes refined product distribution and prevents inventory imbalances on the Eastern Seaboard. | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-22 | XLE | New production deals for pure E&Ps like COP directly impact upstream output and gas-weighted margins. | news | -4.80 | 1 |
| 2026-06-22 | XLU | AI-driven data center load growth is a core macro trigger for merchant nuclear operators like CEG and VST. | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-22 | XLY | A multi-billion dollar penalty and regulatory scrutiny on Amazon's high-margin advertising business directly impacts the sector's largest constituent's profitability. | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-22 | XLRE | Mortgage and refinance interest rates today, Monday, June 22, 2026: Purchase and refinance rate spread grows | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-22 | XLI | New high-power interconnect hardware directly supports the aerospace and defense supply chain and multi-year program requirements. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-22 | XLB | A major acquisition in the aggregates and construction materials space directly leverages US construction spending trends. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-22 | XLF | A change in Fed leadership directly influences the Fed Funds path and the regulatory environment for G-SIBs like JPM and BAC. | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-22 | XLK | Intel's integration into Nvidia's next-gen Rubin platform reinforces the hardware supply chain for AI data centers. | news | +9.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-22 | XLU | HELOC and home equity loan rates, Monday, June 22, 2026: Borrowing need will dictate your interest rate | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-22 | XLRE | Strong secular demand in data centers and healthcare supports occupancy and NOI growth despite broader sector headwinds. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-22 | XLY | The transition to software-defined vehicles is a structural shift in the auto segment required to maintain market share against Chinese NEV competitors. | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-22 | XLV | FDA approval for a new aesthetic indication drives revenue for a top-weighted constituent and supports MedTech procedure volumes. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-22 | XLE | Stock market today: S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow futures pause with US-Iran peace and inflation in focus | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-22 | XLY | Positive regulatory safety data and new AI features support Tesla's high-margin software revenue and vehicle demand. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-22 | XLE | Dollar gains as investors watch US-Iran talks; yen nears 40-year low | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-22 | XLRE | Lower commodity prices and freight rates reduce construction costs, improving developer margins and project delivery timelines. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-22 | XLV | A major $10.9B acquisition by a top sector constituent (ABBV) signals strong M&A appetite and biotech funding capacity. | news | +3.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-22 | XLK | A shift in Apple's chip manufacturing to Intel's domestic foundries would represent a major structural change in the semiconductor supply chain. | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-22 | XLV | The expansion of Medicare price negotiations to 20 additional drugs creates a significant multi-year revenue overhang for large-cap pharma. | news | -7.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-22 | XLE | Treasury yields rise ahead of key inflation data and traders weigh U.S.-Iran negotiations | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-22 | XLE | Stocks waver, oil falls as traders weigh fragile Iran peace talks | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-22 | XLV | Record-breaking M&A spending levels indicate high R&D capacity and a robust exit environment for the biotech sub-segment. | news | +6.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-21 | XLRE | Massive incremental demand for accommodations directly drives occupancy and NOI for lodging REITs like Host Hotels. | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-21 | XLU | Sempra's infrastructure strategy aligns with gas-fired generation and export dynamics which impact sector-wide gas pass-through. | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-21 | XLI | Increased demand for backup power and site preparation machinery for data centers drives capex for CAT and CMI. | news | +5.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-21 | XLK | The acquisition of MEXT targets AI memory bottlenecks, directly enhancing AMD's competitive position in the high-growth AI data-center semiconductor market. | news | +14.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-21 | XLC | Inside EA SPORTS UFC 6: Developers on fighter realism, gameplay, and authenticity - Electronic Arts Home Page | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-21 | XLU | Mortgage and refinance rates today, Friday, June 19, 2026: Rates are rising | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-21 | XLK | Large-scale hardware deployments in cloud data centers drive AMD's data center revenue and signal strong hyperscaler-adjacent demand. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-21 | XLK | Export control violations regarding EUV machines could lead to further regulatory restrictions on semiconductor equipment leaders. | news | -6.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-21 | XLF | Best high-yield savings interest rates today, Friday, June 19, 2026: Up to 4.10% APY return | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-21 | XLI | Modernization of electric grids and new generating capacity drives demand for electrical equipment and power transformers. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-21 | XLE | The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and return of Iranian supply significantly increases global crude availability, putting downward pressure on WTI and Brent prices. | news | -19.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-21 | XLRE | Major M&A activity in the self-storage sub-sector consolidates market share and impacts portfolio-wide occupancy and NOI. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-21 | XLP | Leadership changes in regional segments directly impact the execution of PM's smoke-free transition and international volume growth. | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-21 | XLP | Walmart's guidance is a primary indicator for mass retail volume trends and consumer health amid inflationary pressures. | news | -2.40 | 1 |
| 2026-06-21 | XLY | Regulatory clearance for FSD in EU markets expands the addressable market for Tesla's high-margin software services. | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-21 | XLF | Mortgage and refinance rates today, Friday, June 19, 2026: Rates are rising | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-21 | XLF | Lowering capital buffers directly increases the capacity for banks to expand lending and return capital to shareholders. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-21 | XLB | STLD's confirmed guidance of higher earnings and metal margins reflects strong non-residential construction and manufacturing demand. | news | +4.00 | 1 |