Conviction62.3
SPY weight1.8%
+ Tilt-0.08 pp
= Target1.8%
Current weight (drives NAV)1.8%vs target +0.00 pp
11
Sectors Tracked
2026-05-14
Tracking Since
Day 42
of Daily Monitoring
2026-06-24
Current Date
Alpha vs SPY, since launch
+4.66%
Vega total return minus SPY total return. Positive means Vega is ahead of the index.
Vega NAV
106.82
SPY NAV
102.16
Both NAVs start at 100 on the pilot launch date.
11 sectors
Current sector calls
Each card: SPY weight, plus Vega's tilt, equals Vega's target weight. Conviction and valuation on the side.
Conviction64.2
SPY weight9.8%
+ Tilt-0.31 pp
= Target9.5%
Current weight (drives NAV)9.5%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction52.8
SPY weight3.1%
+ Tilt-0.34 pp
= Target2.8%
Current weight (drives NAV)2.8%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction65.4
SPY weight12.0%
+ Tilt-0.28 pp
= Target11.8%
Current weight (drives NAV)11.8%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction70.9
SPY weight8.7%
+ Tilt+0.13 pp
= Target8.9%
Current weight (drives NAV)8.9%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction81.1
SPY weight37.8%
+ Tilt+3.27 pp
= Target41.1%
Current weight (drives NAV)41.1%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction54.0
SPY weight4.7%
+ Tilt-0.48 pp
= Target4.2%
Current weight (drives NAV)4.2%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction65.1
SPY weight1.9%
+ Tilt-0.05 pp
= Target1.8%
Current weight (drives NAV)1.8%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction60.9
SPY weight2.2%
+ Tilt-0.12 pp
= Target2.1%
Current weight (drives NAV)2.1%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction56.1
SPY weight8.7%
+ Tilt-0.76 pp
= Target7.9%
Current weight (drives NAV)7.9%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction54.0
SPY weight9.2%
+ Tilt-0.94 pp
= Target8.2%
Current weight (drives NAV)8.2%vs target +0.00 pp
SPY mix and Vega tilt
Where Vega is above or below SPY
SPY sector weight, Vega's tilt, Vega target weight, and Vega's current weight.
SPY sector weight + Tilt = Vega target weight. Target weight is where Vega wants to be today after applying its sector tilt. Current Vega weight is where the portfolio actually sits today; it can lag the target because Vega only rebalances when the gap is wide enough (rebalance band: 5 pp). Vega NAV is compounded using the current weight, so headline alpha vs SPY reflects executed positioning, not the model's intended target.
| Sector | SPY sector weight | Tilt vs SPY | Vega target weight | Current Vega weight | Vega view | Conviction | Valuation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MaterialsXLB | 1.8% | -0.08 ppLess than SPY | 1.8% | 1.8% | UNDERWEIGHT | 62.3 | Expensive by EV/EBITDA |
| Communication ServicesXLC | 9.8% | -0.31 ppLess than SPY | 9.5% | 9.5% | UNDERWEIGHT | 64.2 | Cheap by PEG |
| EnergyXLE | 3.1% | -0.34 ppLess than SPY | 2.8% | 2.8% | UNDERWEIGHT | 52.8 | Cheap by EV/EBITDA |
| FinancialsXLF | 12.0% | -0.28 ppLess than SPY | 11.8% | 11.8% | UNDERWEIGHT | 65.4 | Expensive by P/B |
| IndustrialsXLI | 8.7% | +0.13 ppMore than SPY | 8.9% | 8.9% | OVERWEIGHT | 70.9 | Expensive by EV/EBITDA |
| Information TechnologyXLK | 37.8% | +3.27 ppMore than SPY | 41.1% | 41.1% | OVERWEIGHT | 81.1 | Neutral by PEG |
| Consumer StaplesXLP | 4.7% | -0.48 ppLess than SPY | 4.2% | 4.2% | UNDERWEIGHT | 54.0 | Neutral by P/E |
| Real EstateXLRE | 1.9% | -0.05 ppLess than SPY | 1.8% | 1.8% | NEUTRAL | 65.1 | Expensive by Price/FFO |
| UtilitiesXLU | 2.2% | -0.12 ppLess than SPY | 2.1% | 2.1% | UNDERWEIGHT | 60.9 | Neutral by P/E |
| Health CareXLV | 8.7% | -0.76 ppLess than SPY | 7.9% | 7.9% | UNDERWEIGHT | 56.1 | Cheap by P/E |
| Consumer DiscretionaryXLY | 9.2% | -0.94 ppLess than SPY | 8.2% | 8.2% | UNDERWEIGHT | 54.0 | Cheap by EV/EBITDA |
Recent events
Events noted by sector
Score impact is the model's recorded event effect for the sector.
| Date | Sector | Event noted | Source | Score impact | Sectors affected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-24 | XLB | Asian refiners see little room for Iranian oil, leaving China as key buyer after US waiver | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-24 | XLB | U.S. issues sweeping Iran oil sanctions waivers, unlocking billions in revenue for Tehran | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-24 | XLB | Treasury Department authorizes Iranian oil sales through August | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-24 | XLB | 'We'll see' — Trump hedges on guarantee Iran won't use oil profits to rebuild military | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-24 | XLC | This massive consolidation of major content libraries directly impacts streaming competition and is facing critical antitrust reviews in the EU and UK. | news | -4.80 | 1 |
| 2026-06-24 | XLE | U.S. issues sweeping Iran oil sanctions waivers, unlocking billions in revenue for Tehran | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-24 | XLE | 'We'll see' — Trump hedges on guarantee Iran won't use oil profits to rebuild military | news | -2.40 | 1 |
| 2026-06-24 | XLF | Lowering capital buffers directly increases lending capacity and capital return flexibility for major banks. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-24 | XLF | Liquidity constraints in private credit funds signal potential stress in asset quality and capital market outflows. | news | -7.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-24 | XLI | Repurposing industrial capacity for munitions directly impacts defense budget appropriations and contract visibility for major primes. | news | +3.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-24 | XLI | Expansion of advanced manufacturing facilities supports the production ramp-up for aerospace and defense components. | news | +3.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-24 | XLK | The multi-year deployment of Instinct GPUs and EPYC CPUs represents a significant enterprise capex commitment for AMD's data center segment. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-24 | XLK | Large-scale government-backed infrastructure investment in chip clusters directly supports long-term semiconductor supply and capex trends. | news | +8.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-24 | XLK | Securing next-gen HBM4 supply is critical for AMD's AI data-center chip roadmap and directly impacts semiconductor billings. | news | +11.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-24 | XLK | Meta's deployment of AMD GPUs represents a significant hyperscaler capex commitment to non-Nvidia AI hardware. | news | +12.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-24 | XLP | Increased marketing spend and R&D allocation are aimed at reversing market share losses and improving organic volume trends. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-24 | XLRE | Declining new supply and high occupancy provide residential REITs with significant rental pricing power and NOI growth potential. | news | +5.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-24 | XLRE | The shift toward data centers and towers in the index highlights the structural acceleration of digital infrastructure demand. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-24 | XLRE | Mortgage and refinance interest rates today, Wednesday, June 24, 2026: Rates are rising today | news | -2.40 | 1 |
| 2026-06-24 | XLU | Securing long-term nuclear supply contracts with major corporate customers validates the AI and electrification load-growth thesis for merchant power producers. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-24 | XLU | Authorized rate increases directly drive utility EPS and recovery of capital investments. | news | +6.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-24 | XLU | 'We'll see' — Trump hedges on guarantee Iran won't use oil profits to rebuild military | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-24 | XLU | U.S. issues sweeping Iran oil sanctions waivers, unlocking billions in revenue for Tehran | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-24 | XLU | Asian refiners see little room for Iranian oil, leaving China as key buyer after US waiver | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-24 | XLU | Mortgage and refinance interest rates today, Wednesday, June 24, 2026: Rates are rising today | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-24 | XLV | A multi-billion dollar R&D deal by sector leader LLY signals strong biotech funding and pipeline expansion. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-24 | XLV | High-velocity M&A activity at the $1B+ level is a primary driver for biotech valuations and pharma pipeline replenishment. | news | +8.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-24 | XLV | Recalls of essential surgical prep products can disrupt elective procedure volumes and increase liability for device manufacturers. | news | +1.60 | 1 |
| 2026-06-24 | XLV | The massive scale of upcoming loss-of-exclusivity represents a structural revenue risk for large-cap pharma constituents. | news | -1.60 | 1 |
| 2026-06-24 | XLY | A potential halt of all new and used car sales in California would severely impact US auto sales volumes for major constituents like GM and Toyota. | news | -9.60 | 1 |
| 2026-06-24 | XLY | Shifting excess automotive capacity to defense production could impact core vehicle output and long-term capital allocation for GM and Ford. | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-24 | XLY | Trade barriers and localization requirements for Chinese EVs impact the competitive landscape and supply chain for the North American auto segment. | news | -2.40 | 1 |
| 2026-06-24 | XLY | Mortgage and refinance interest rates today, Wednesday, June 24, 2026: Rates are rising today | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-24 | XLY | HELOC and home equity loan interest rates today, Wednesday, June 24, 2026: Lenders offer the same products, but different rates | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-24 | XLY | 'We'll see' — Trump hedges on guarantee Iran won't use oil profits to rebuild military | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-24 | XLY | Asian refiners see little room for Iranian oil, leaving China as key buyer after US waiver | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-24 | XLY | U.S. issues sweeping Iran oil sanctions waivers, unlocking billions in revenue for Tehran | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-24 | XLY | Treasury Department authorizes Iranian oil sales through August | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-23 | XLB | This massive acquisition significantly expands CRH's aggregates and infrastructure capacity to capture rising US construction spending. | news | +6.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-23 | XLB | 'We'll see' — Trump hedges on guarantee Iran won't use oil profits to rebuild military | news | +1.00 | 2 |
| 2026-06-23 | XLB | U.S. issues sweeping Iran oil sanctions waivers, unlocking billions in revenue for Tehran | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-23 | XLB | Treasury Department authorizes Iranian oil sales through August | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-23 | XLB | Asian refiners see little room for Iranian oil, leaving China as key buyer after US waiver | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-23 | XLC | A potential merger between NFLX and WBD would fundamentally consolidate the streaming market and impact content amortization scales. | news | -0.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-23 | XLE | The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and potential return of Iranian supply directly lowers crude spot prices, hurting E&P margins. | news | -8.80 | 1 |
| 2026-06-23 | XLE | U.S. issues sweeping Iran oil sanctions waivers, unlocking billions in revenue for Tehran | news | -13.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-23 | XLE | Treasury Department authorizes Iranian oil sales through August | news | -12.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-23 | XLE | 'We'll see' — Trump hedges on guarantee Iran won't use oil profits to rebuild military | news | -9.60 | 1 |
| 2026-06-23 | XLE | Stocks waver, oil falls as traders weigh fragile Iran peace talks | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-23 | XLE | Asian refiners see little room for Iranian oil, leaving China as key buyer after US waiver | news | +0.00 | 1 |