Conviction63.0
SPY weight1.9%
+ Tilt-0.08 pp
= Target1.8%
Current weight (drives NAV)1.8%vs target +0.00 pp
11
Sectors Tracked
2026-05-14
Tracking Since
Day 45
of Daily Monitoring
2026-06-27
Current Date
Alpha vs SPY, since launch
+4.87%
Vega total return minus SPY total return. Positive means Vega is ahead of the index.
Vega NAV
106.25
SPY NAV
101.37
Both NAVs start at 100 on the pilot launch date.
11 sectors
Current sector calls
Each card: SPY weight, plus Vega's tilt, equals Vega's target weight. Conviction and valuation on the side.
Conviction64.5
SPY weight9.6%
+ Tilt-0.30 pp
= Target9.3%
Current weight (drives NAV)9.3%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction49.2
SPY weight3.1%
+ Tilt-0.43 pp
= Target2.7%
Current weight (drives NAV)2.7%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction dropped 15 points over 30 days
Conviction67.0
SPY weight11.9%
+ Tilt-0.17 pp
= Target11.8%
Current weight (drives NAV)11.8%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction75.2
SPY weight9.1%
+ Tilt+0.39 pp
= Target9.4%
Current weight (drives NAV)9.4%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction80.8
SPY weight37.5%
+ Tilt+3.06 pp
= Target40.6%
Current weight (drives NAV)40.6%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction53.4
SPY weight4.7%
+ Tilt-0.51 pp
= Target4.2%
Current weight (drives NAV)4.2%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction67.7
SPY weight1.9%
+ Tilt-0.02 pp
= Target1.9%
Current weight (drives NAV)1.9%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction61.2
SPY weight2.3%
+ Tilt-0.12 pp
= Target2.1%
Current weight (drives NAV)2.1%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction55.7
SPY weight8.9%
+ Tilt-0.82 pp
= Target8.1%
Current weight (drives NAV)8.1%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction53.4
SPY weight9.1%
+ Tilt-0.98 pp
= Target8.1%
Current weight (drives NAV)8.1%vs target +0.00 pp
SPY mix and Vega tilt
Where Vega is above or below SPY
SPY sector weight, Vega's tilt, Vega target weight, and Vega's current weight.
SPY sector weight + Tilt = Vega target weight. Target weight is where Vega wants to be today after applying its sector tilt. Current Vega weight is where the portfolio actually sits today; it can lag the target because Vega only rebalances when the gap is wide enough (rebalance band: 5 pp). Vega NAV is compounded using the current weight, so headline alpha vs SPY reflects executed positioning, not the model's intended target.
| Sector | SPY sector weight | Tilt vs SPY | Vega target weight | Current Vega weight | Vega view | Conviction | Valuation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MaterialsXLB | 1.9% | -0.08 ppLess than SPY | 1.8% | 1.8% | UNDERWEIGHT | 63.0 | Expensive by EV/EBITDA |
| Communication ServicesXLC | 9.6% | -0.30 ppLess than SPY | 9.3% | 9.3% | UNDERWEIGHT | 64.5 | Cheap by PEG |
| EnergyXLE | 3.1% | -0.43 ppLess than SPY | 2.7% | 2.7% | UNDERWEIGHT | 49.2 | Cheap by EV/EBITDA |
| FinancialsXLF | 11.9% | -0.17 ppLess than SPY | 11.8% | 11.8% | UNDERWEIGHT | 67.0 | Expensive by P/B |
| IndustrialsXLI | 9.1% | +0.39 ppMore than SPY | 9.4% | 9.4% | OVERWEIGHT | 75.2 | Expensive by EV/EBITDA |
| Information TechnologyXLK | 37.5% | +3.06 ppMore than SPY | 40.6% | 40.6% | OVERWEIGHT | 80.8 | Neutral by PEG |
| Consumer StaplesXLP | 4.7% | -0.51 ppLess than SPY | 4.2% | 4.2% | UNDERWEIGHT | 53.4 | Neutral by P/E |
| Real EstateXLRE | 1.9% | -0.02 ppLess than SPY | 1.9% | 1.9% | NEUTRAL | 67.7 | Expensive by Price/FFO |
| UtilitiesXLU | 2.3% | -0.12 ppLess than SPY | 2.1% | 2.1% | UNDERWEIGHT | 61.2 | Neutral by P/E |
| Health CareXLV | 8.9% | -0.82 ppLess than SPY | 8.1% | 8.1% | UNDERWEIGHT | 55.7 | Neutral by P/E |
| Consumer DiscretionaryXLY | 9.1% | -0.98 ppLess than SPY | 8.1% | 8.1% | UNDERWEIGHT | 53.4 | Cheap by EV/EBITDA |
Recent events
Events noted by sector
Score impact is the model's recorded event effect for the sector.
| Date | Sector | Event noted | Source | Score impact | Sectors affected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | XLB | Rising gold prices directly benefit major sector constituents like Newmont (NEM) by improving mining margins. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-27 | XLI | Talks for GE’s engine for India's 5th-gen fighter project AMCA hit roadblock as US giant ‘raises cost by - The Times of India | news | -2.40 | 1 |
| 2026-06-27 | XLC | Nate Hampton EA SPORTS™ College Football 27 Player Ratings - Launch Ratings - Electronic Arts Home Page | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-27 | XLV | Potential US trade investigations and tariffs on foreign drug pricing policies create significant pricing pressure and margin risk for global pharma. | news | -7.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-27 | XLI | Increased engine deliveries and a massive services backlog provide high visibility for GE Aerospace, a top sector constituent. | news | +6.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-27 | XLV | FDA acceptance of a resubmission is a necessary step toward approval, though the scheduled advisory committee introduces regulatory uncertainty. | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-27 | XLK | Apple's attempt to source from CXMT highlights critical memory supply constraints affecting hardware production and margins. | news | -3.60 | 1 |
| 2026-06-27 | XLI | Turkey’s KAAN Joins India’s AMCA as Yet Another “Indigenous” Fighter Jet To Be Powered by U.S. Engines - EurAsian Times | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-27 | XLC | WBD's expansion into lifestyle merchandising and AI-driven ad partnerships provides high-margin revenue streams to offset content costs. | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-27 | XLP | As the sector's largest constituent, Walmart's guidance on fuel-driven consumer pressure directly signals potential volume headwinds and downtrading. | news | -7.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-27 | XLY | Legislation accelerating housing supply is a leading indicator for increased demand at home improvement retailers like HD and LOW. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-27 | XLRE | Legislative delays and high mortgage rates are constraining housing supply and affordability, impacting residential REIT pricing power. | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-27 | XLV | Significant venture funding for new biotech entities indicates healthy R&D capacity and a robust future M&A pipeline. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-27 | XLP | Expansion into high-margin advertising improves Walmart's ecosystem and supports its ability to keep prices low, driving traffic and private label growth. | news | +5.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-27 | XLK | Qualcomm's diversification into data center and AI infrastructure signals a shift in semiconductor revenue mix toward high-growth tech capex. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-27 | XLRE | The massive credit facility and lower interest spread improve liquidity and refinancing flexibility for a major sector constituent. | news | +8.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-27 | XLRE | The partnership between two top-weight REITs leverages AI to optimize capital allocation and operational efficiency. | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-27 | XLY | Increased market share for Chinese brands directly threatens the sales and margins of established Western auto constituents like GM and Ford. | news | -4.80 | 1 |
| 2026-06-27 | XLE | A massive projected drawdown in global inventories is a primary bullish trigger for crude spot prices and upstream profitability. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-27 | XLE | Sourcing cheaper Venezuelan heavy crude directly improves refiner margins (crack spreads) for PSX. | news | +5.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-27 | XLU | Political and ethical scrutiny of nuclear grants could delay capex for small modular reactors intended to power data centers. | news | -4.80 | 1 |
| 2026-06-27 | XLU | License extensions for zero-emission nuclear plants support long-term carbon-free power supply and reliability goals. | news | +7.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-27 | XLF | Expansion into digital asset products represents a new revenue stream for capital markets firms under evolving regulatory frameworks. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-27 | XLF | High redemption requests in private credit suggest liquidity stress and potential asset quality concerns within capital markets segments. | news | -2.40 | 1 |
| 2026-06-27 | XLY | Massive layoffs at a major global automaker signal structural weakness and declining demand in the auto segment. | news | -6.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-27 | XLK | Confirmation of the 2nm TPU timeline validates hyperscaler capex and custom AI silicon demand for AVGO. | news | +6.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-27 | XLE | Crude falling below $70 directly impacts E&P margins and tests the dividend sustainability of majors like XOM and CVX. | news | -15.90 | 1 |
| 2026-06-27 | XLV | Positive clinical data for nipocalimab supports label expansion and revenue growth for a top-weighted XLV constituent. | news | +3.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-27 | XLI | Why Trump's $700 million jet engine deal could transform Türkiye's KAAN fighter - The Times of India | news | +5.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-27 | XLU | Confirmed earnings results and management guidance provide the primary data for utility EPS growth and rate-base execution. | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-25 | XLI | Repurposing industrial capacity for munitions directly impacts defense budget appropriations and contract visibility for major primes. | news | +5.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-25 | XLF | Best CD rates today, Wednesday, June 24, 2026: Earn up to 4% APY | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-25 | XLY | Compliance deadlines for remote access revocation could force a temporary halt of new and used vehicle sales in a major US market. | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-25 | XLV | Successful clinical trial progression and capital raising are key indicators of biotech R&D capacity. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-25 | XLRE | Strengthening occupancy and rental growth in retail and healthcare sub-segments are direct drivers of same-store NOI. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-25 | XLU | The massive capex increase specifically targets surging electricity demand from data centers, a core multi-year load-growth thesis for the sector. | news | +10.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-25 | XLI | Extended lead times for heavy machinery and engines indicate robust long-term demand in energy and construction sectors. | news | +12.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-25 | XLK | Qualcomm's pivot to data centers and massive revenue target hike indicates a structural expansion into high-margin AI compute markets. | news | +10.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-25 | XLK | Micron's massive earnings beat and capex increase signal strong cyclical demand for memory and AI data-center infrastructure. | news | +12.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-25 | XLU | The report highlights CEG's nuclear fleet as a primary beneficiary of hyperscale AI power demand, despite valuation concerns. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-25 | XLI | New electrical equipment software platforms drive high-value grid modernization contracts for GE Vernova. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-25 | XLF | HELOC and home equity loan interest rates today, Wednesday, June 24, 2026: Lenders offer the same products, but different rates | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-25 | XLI | Negotiations Stall Over Costly GE F414 Engines for AMCA Project - India News Network | news | -2.40 | 1 |
| 2026-06-25 | XLY | New mandatory safety standards create a regulatory 'elimination round' for EV manufacturers in the world's largest market. | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-25 | XLE | Supply chain disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz impact refiner margins and global crude supply stability. | news | -2.40 | 1 |
| 2026-06-25 | XLY | Import tax exemptions for CKD/SKD kits lower production costs for EV manufacturers expanding in the Brazilian market. | news | +3.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-25 | XLRE | The narrowing valuation gap and 14.2% total return indicate a recovery in REIT FFO multiples relative to broader equities. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-25 | XLRE | Federal Reserve says U.S. banks can withstand $708 billion in losses amid overhaul of capital rules | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-25 | XLC | This massive consolidation of major content libraries directly impacts streaming competition and is facing critical antitrust reviews in the EU and UK. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-25 | XLRE | JPMorgan Chase unveils $50 billion buyback, Goldman Sachs raises dividend after Fed stress test | news | +3.00 | 1 |