Conviction53.0
SPY weight1.8%
+ Tilt-0.06 pp
= Target1.8%
Current weight (drives NAV)1.8%vs target +0.01 pp
11
Sectors Tracked
2026-05-14
Tracking Since
Day 9
of Daily Monitoring
2026-05-22
Current Date
Alpha vs SPY, since launch
+0.52%
Vega total return minus SPY total return. Positive means Vega is ahead of the index.
Vega NAV
100.84
SPY NAV
100.32
Both NAVs start at 100 on the pilot launch date.
11 sectors
Current sector calls
Each card: SPY weight, plus Vega's tilt, equals Vega's target weight. Conviction and valuation on the side.
Conviction50.5
SPY weight10.6%
+ Tilt-0.55 pp
= Target10.1%
Current weight (drives NAV)10.3%vs target +0.24 pp
Conviction60.2
SPY weight3.4%
+ Tilt+0.07 pp
= Target3.4%
Current weight (drives NAV)3.5%vs target +0.06 pp
Conviction57.7
SPY weight11.5%
+ Tilt+0.03 pp
= Target11.6%
Current weight (drives NAV)11.6%vs target +0.03 pp
Conviction59.0
SPY weight8.3%
+ Tilt+0.10 pp
= Target8.4%
Current weight (drives NAV)8.4%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction64.8
SPY weight37.3%
+ Tilt+2.10 pp
= Target39.4%
Current weight (drives NAV)39.0%vs target -0.44 pp
Conviction53.5
SPY weight4.8%
+ Tilt-0.14 pp
= Target4.6%
Current weight (drives NAV)4.8%vs target +0.13 pp
Conviction50.2
SPY weight1.9%
+ Tilt-0.10 pp
= Target1.8%
Current weight (drives NAV)1.8%vs target -0.01 pp
Conviction55.3
SPY weight2.2%
+ Tilt-0.03 pp
= Target2.1%
Current weight (drives NAV)2.1%vs target -0.05 pp
Conviction52.9
SPY weight8.4%
+ Tilt-0.28 pp
= Target8.1%
Current weight (drives NAV)8.0%vs target -0.08 pp
Conviction44.1
SPY weight9.7%
+ Tilt-0.97 pp
= Target8.8%
Current weight (drives NAV)8.9%vs target +0.12 pp
SPY mix and Vega tilt
Where Vega is above or below SPY
SPY sector weight, Vega's tilt, Vega target weight, and Vega's current weight.
SPY sector weight + Tilt = Vega target weight. Target weight is where Vega wants to be today after applying its sector tilt. Current Vega weight is where the portfolio actually sits today; it can lag the target because Vega only rebalances when the gap is wide enough (rebalance band: 5 pp). Vega NAV is compounded using the current weight, so headline alpha vs SPY reflects executed positioning, not the model's intended target.
| Sector | SPY sector weight | Tilt vs SPY | Vega target weight | Current Vega weight | Vega view | Conviction | Valuation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MaterialsXLB | 1.8% | -0.06 ppLess than SPY | 1.8% | 1.8% | UNDERWEIGHT | 53.0 | - |
| Communication ServicesXLC | 10.6% | -0.55 ppLess than SPY | 10.1% | 10.3% | UNDERWEIGHT | 50.5 | - |
| EnergyXLE | 3.4% | +0.07 ppMore than SPY | 3.4% | 3.5% | OVERWEIGHT | 60.2 | - |
| FinancialsXLF | 11.5% | +0.03 ppMore than SPY | 11.6% | 11.6% | OVERWEIGHT | 57.7 | - |
| IndustrialsXLI | 8.3% | +0.10 ppMore than SPY | 8.4% | 8.4% | OVERWEIGHT | 59.0 | - |
| Information TechnologyXLK | 37.3% | +2.10 ppMore than SPY | 39.4% | 39.0% | OVERWEIGHT | 64.8 | - |
| Consumer StaplesXLP | 4.8% | -0.14 ppLess than SPY | 4.6% | 4.8% | NEUTRAL | 53.5 | - |
| Real EstateXLRE | 1.9% | -0.10 ppLess than SPY | 1.8% | 1.8% | UNDERWEIGHT | 50.2 | - |
| UtilitiesXLU | 2.2% | -0.03 ppLess than SPY | 2.1% | 2.1% | UNDERWEIGHT | 55.3 | - |
| Health CareXLV | 8.4% | -0.28 ppLess than SPY | 8.1% | 8.0% | UNDERWEIGHT | 52.9 | - |
| Consumer DiscretionaryXLY | 9.7% | -0.97 ppLess than SPY | 8.8% | 8.9% | UNDERWEIGHT | 44.1 | - |
Recent events
Events noted by sector
Score impact is the model's recorded event effect for the sector.
| Date | Sector | Event noted | Source | Score impact | Sectors affected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | XLK | Continued hyperscaler adoption of Nvidia hardware validates the ongoing surge in tech capex. | news | +3.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-22 | XLK | Increased capex and production capacity for AI chips directly supports the data-center growth thesis. | news | +7.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-22 | XLP | Walmart Eats $175 Million Fuel Cost Hit To Protect Shoppers—Now It's Warning Of Inflation Ahead - Benzinga | news | -3.20 | 1 |
| 2026-05-22 | XLU | The massive capital plan and equity raise are specifically targeted at grid modernization for AI and data center load growth. | news | +5.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-22 | XLRE | The largest-ever REIT merger creates a dominant residential player, significantly impacting multifamily pricing power and operational efficiency. | news | +14.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-22 | XLY | Strong off-price retail performance and raised guidance indicate resilient consumer spending despite macro pressures. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-22 | XLY | Strong performance at a top-5 XLY constituent (TJX) serves as a high-relevance indicator for resilient consumer spending. | news | +0.80 | 1 |
| 2026-05-22 | XLY | Stellantis unveils $70 billion turnaround plan, targets positive cash flow by 2027 | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-22 | XLI | Stellantis unveils $70 billion turnaround plan, targets positive cash flow by 2027 | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-22 | XLY | Stellantis targets 35% North American sales increase, led by Ram Trucks and Chrysler revival | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-22 | XLI | Stellantis targets 35% North American sales increase, led by Ram Trucks and Chrysler revival | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-22 | XLP | Walmart's record transaction volume and e-commerce growth serve as a primary indicator for consumer staples demand and pricing power. | news | +2.60 | 1 |
| 2026-05-22 | XLK | Broadcom's record AI revenue growth confirms the strength of hyperscaler-adjacent data-center spending. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-22 | XLI | The deal shifts CAT's profile toward power infrastructure and data center support, diversifying beyond traditional heavy machinery. | news | +9.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-22 | XLI | Stellantis to offer cars under $40k, diverging from market trends - marketplace.org | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-22 | XLE | New production deals and legal frameworks in Venezuela allow CVX to expand upstream output and reserves. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-22 | XLY | Stellantis to offer cars under $40k, diverging from market trends - marketplace.org | news | -2.40 | 1 |
| 2026-05-22 | XLC | The Starlink IPO prospectus highlights a long-term competitive threat to the postpaid net adds of major telecom constituents like T, TMUS, and VZ. | news | -4.80 | 1 |
| 2026-05-22 | XLU | Strong earnings and regulatory wins in Texas validate the load-growth and rate-base expansion thesis for regulated utilities. | news | +8.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-22 | XLRE | Significant stake increases by a leading real estate asset manager signal high conviction in underlying REIT fundamentals and cash flows. | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-22 | XLU | New dispatchable gas generation addresses rising ERCOT demand and strengthens Constellation's merchant power portfolio. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-22 | XLP | Higher Gas Prices Have Consumers Visiting Costco, Sam's Club More: What The Data Shows - Benzinga | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-22 | XLP | A change in the CFO of a top-5 sector constituent is a material administrative event affecting strategic financial management. | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-22 | XLB | The acquisition expands CRH's exposure to US water infrastructure, directly benefiting from rising construction spending. | news | +5.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-22 | XLB | Expanding rebar capacity directly leverages US infrastructure spending and domestic steel demand. | news | +6.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-22 | XLY | Walmart plans price cuts using tariff refunds as shoppers get skittish | news | -2.40 | 1 |
| 2026-05-22 | XLP | Walmart issues worse-than-expected outlook as high gas prices hit shoppers | news | -3.60 | 1 |
| 2026-05-22 | XLB | Linde's pricing power and industrial gas volume growth are key indicators of industrial end-market health and ISM Manufacturing trends. | news | -0.40 | 1 |
| 2026-05-22 | XLF | The order threatens the dominance of major payment networks and banks by reducing barriers for non-bank competitors. | news | -10.80 | 1 |
| 2026-05-22 | XLF | A change in Fed leadership directly impacts the trajectory of interest rates and the regulatory environment for money-center banks. | news | +15.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-22 | XLP | E.l.f. Beauty to walk back some tariff price increases amid high gas prices and consumer 'suffering' | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-22 | XLV | Positive Phase 3 data for Lilly's next-gen obesity drug strengthens the growth outlook for the sector's largest constituent. | news | +3.60 | 1 |
| 2026-05-22 | XLE | The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and depletion of global stocks to record lows drives Brent crude above $100, significantly benefiting E&P margins. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-22 | XLY | Price hikes and inventory hoarding in the world's third-largest auto market signal margin pressure and potential demand cooling. | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-05-22 | XLV | FDA approval of a novel once-weekly treatment provides a direct revenue catalyst for the biotech segment. | news | +8.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-22 | XLF | Leading a potentially record-breaking IPO generates significant advisory fees for major capital markets constituents. | news | +6.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-22 | XLI | Large-scale electrical equipment orders for grid storage drive growth for GEV's power infrastructure segment. | news | +3.80 | 1 |
| 2026-05-22 | XLY | Walmart issues worse-than-expected outlook as high gas prices hit shoppers | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-05-22 | XLP | Trump said he'd 'remember' companies that didn't apply for tariff refunds. Many of them are anyway | news | +7.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-21 | XLE | The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and depletion of global stocks to record lows drives Brent crude above $100, significantly benefiting E&P margins. | news | +10.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-21 | XLF | Major IPO mandates for Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley drive significant investment banking fee revenue within the capital markets sub-segment. | news | +6.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-21 | XLB | Building materials companies like Martin Marietta are highly sensitive to construction volumes and interest-rate-driven cyclicality. | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-05-21 | XLK | Nvidia's record data center revenue and guidance confirm massive hyperscaler capex and semiconductor demand. | news | +18.50 | 1 |
| 2026-05-21 | XLP | Walmart issues worse-than-expected outlook as high gas prices hit shoppers | news | -0.20 | 1 |
| 2026-05-21 | XLC | New AI-integrated search and agent tools enhance user engagement and provide new monetization pathways for Google's ad-platform business. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-21 | XLY | Delaying stricter standards reduces immediate compliance costs for major automakers by an estimated $2 billion. | news | +5.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-21 | XLE | The $2.17B divestment allows Chevron to streamline its portfolio and focus on higher-margin upstream or core integrated operations. | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-21 | XLP | E.l.f. Beauty to walk back some tariff price increases amid high gas prices and consumer 'suffering' | news | -3.60 | 1 |
| 2026-05-21 | XLV | Pipeline advancement for Skyrizi helps mitigate future patent cliff risks by expanding indications and lifecycle management. | news | +7.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-21 | XLV | J&J's launch of coronary catheters and robotic surgery results drives the MedTech procedure volume thesis. | news | +7.00 | 1 |