Conviction58.7
SPY weight1.9%
+ Tilt-0.11 pp
= Target1.8%
Current weight (drives NAV)1.8%vs target +0.03 pp
11
Sectors Tracked
2026-05-14
Tracking Since
Day 30
of Daily Monitoring
2026-06-12
Current Date
Alpha vs SPY, since launch
+3.72%
Vega total return minus SPY total return. Positive means Vega is ahead of the index.
Vega NAV
103.29
SPY NAV
99.57
Both NAVs start at 100 on the pilot launch date.
11 sectors
Current sector calls
Each card: SPY weight, plus Vega's tilt, equals Vega's target weight. Conviction and valuation on the side.
Conviction53.6
SPY weight10.0%
+ Tilt-0.92 pp
= Target9.1%
Current weight (drives NAV)9.5%vs target +0.42 pp
Conviction78.0
SPY weight3.2%
+ Tilt+0.26 pp
= Target3.5%
Current weight (drives NAV)3.5%vs target +0.01 pp
Conviction60.9
SPY weight11.8%
+ Tilt-0.49 pp
= Target11.3%
Current weight (drives NAV)11.2%vs target -0.05 pp
Conviction67.0
SPY weight8.6%
+ Tilt+0.02 pp
= Target8.6%
Current weight (drives NAV)8.5%vs target -0.08 pp
Conviction79.7
SPY weight37.3%
+ Tilt+3.42 pp
= Target40.8%
Current weight (drives NAV)40.5%vs target -0.29 pp
Conviction53.7
SPY weight4.8%
+ Tilt-0.44 pp
= Target4.3%
Current weight (drives NAV)4.3%vs target -0.02 pp
Conviction61.5
SPY weight1.9%
+ Tilt-0.07 pp
= Target1.8%
Current weight (drives NAV)1.8%vs target -0.03 pp
Conviction60.5
SPY weight2.1%
+ Tilt-0.09 pp
= Target2.0%
Current weight (drives NAV)2.1%vs target +0.06 pp
Conviction61.9
SPY weight8.8%
+ Tilt-0.30 pp
= Target8.4%
Current weight (drives NAV)8.4%vs target -0.01 pp
Conviction51.1
SPY weight9.4%
+ Tilt-1.04 pp
= Target8.4%
Current weight (drives NAV)8.3%vs target -0.03 pp
SPY mix and Vega tilt
Where Vega is above or below SPY
SPY sector weight, Vega's tilt, Vega target weight, and Vega's current weight.
SPY sector weight + Tilt = Vega target weight. Target weight is where Vega wants to be today after applying its sector tilt. Current Vega weight is where the portfolio actually sits today; it can lag the target because Vega only rebalances when the gap is wide enough (rebalance band: 5 pp). Vega NAV is compounded using the current weight, so headline alpha vs SPY reflects executed positioning, not the model's intended target.
| Sector | SPY sector weight | Tilt vs SPY | Vega target weight | Current Vega weight | Vega view | Conviction | Valuation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MaterialsXLB | 1.9% | -0.11 ppLess than SPY | 1.8% | 1.8% | UNDERWEIGHT | 58.7 | Expensive by EV/EBITDA |
| Communication ServicesXLC | 10.0% | -0.92 ppLess than SPY | 9.1% | 9.5% | UNDERWEIGHT | 53.6 | Expensive by PEG |
| EnergyXLE | 3.2% | +0.26 ppMore than SPY | 3.5% | 3.5% | OVERWEIGHT | 78.0 | Cheap by EV/EBITDA |
| FinancialsXLF | 11.8% | -0.49 ppLess than SPY | 11.3% | 11.2% | UNDERWEIGHT | 60.9 | Expensive by P/B |
| IndustrialsXLI | 8.6% | +0.02 ppMore than SPY | 8.6% | 8.5% | UNDERWEIGHT | 67.0 | Cheap by EV/EBITDA |
| Information TechnologyXLK | 37.3% | +3.42 ppMore than SPY | 40.8% | 40.5% | OVERWEIGHT | 79.7 | Cheap by PEG |
| Consumer StaplesXLP | 4.8% | -0.44 ppLess than SPY | 4.3% | 4.3% | UNDERWEIGHT | 53.7 | Neutral by P/E |
| Real EstateXLRE | 1.9% | -0.07 ppLess than SPY | 1.8% | 1.8% | UNDERWEIGHT | 61.5 | Neutral by Price/FFO |
| UtilitiesXLU | 2.1% | -0.09 ppLess than SPY | 2.0% | 2.1% | NEUTRAL | 60.5 | Cheap by P/E |
| Health CareXLV | 8.8% | -0.30 ppLess than SPY | 8.4% | 8.4% | UNDERWEIGHT | 61.9 | Cheap by P/E |
| Consumer DiscretionaryXLY | 9.4% | -1.04 ppLess than SPY | 8.4% | 8.3% | UNDERWEIGHT | 51.1 | Cheap by EV/EBITDA |
Recent events
Events noted by sector
Score impact is the model's recorded event effect for the sector.
| Date | Sector | Event noted | Source | Score impact | Sectors affected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | XLB | Rising copper prices directly improve margins for major sector constituents like Freeport-McMoRan (FCX). | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-12 | XLK | Applied Materials reporting a growth inflection is a leading indicator for global semiconductor billings and hyperscaler capex execution. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-12 | XLF | Specific timelines for rate cuts directly impact net interest margin (NIM) expectations and deposit cost structures for major banks. | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-12 | XLV | Label expansions and new regional approvals for major oncology drugs like Enhertu drive revenue growth for large-cap pharma. | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-12 | XLB | Oil tanker CEO sees Hormuz ship traffic quickly increasing if U.S. and Iran reach a deal | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-12 | XLU | Nuclear restarts specifically targeted at AI data center demand are a core driver for merchant power margins. | news | +3.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-12 | XLU | Large equity raises in the utility sector typically fund the massive capex required for data center load growth and renewable transitions. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-12 | XLK | AMD's massive investment in Taiwan directly expands AI chip production capacity, a core driver of semiconductor sector growth. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-12 | XLU | A massive M&A deal between top-tier utilities driven by AI power demand validates the structural load-growth thesis. | news | +2.60 | 1 |
| 2026-06-12 | XLK | Oracle beats on earnings, but stock drops on plans to raise another $20 billion | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-12 | XLRE | Successful debt pricing in lower-rate currencies like the Yen helps manage interest expense and cap rate spreads for the top industrial REIT. | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-12 | XLK | Trump's Iran Encore Sinks Nasdaq 2%, Oracle's Capex Tab Comes Due - ChartMill | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-12 | XLE | Oil tanker CEO sees Hormuz ship traffic quickly increasing if U.S. and Iran reach a deal | news | -2.60 | 2 |
| 2026-06-12 | XLE | Proposed Iran-U.S. deal would reopen Hormuz strait and lift oil sanctions, Iran state media says | news | -12.00 | 2 |
| 2026-06-12 | XLY | Regulatory intervention in pricing competition directly impacts margins and sales strategies for major auto constituents like Tesla. | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-12 | XLF | Regulatory intervention in interbank lending affects credit growth and liquidity management for global banking operations. | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-12 | XLK | Strategic partnerships in the testing and equipment space signal health in the semiconductor supply chain and future billings. | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-12 | XLV | Positive Phase III data for a TYK2 inhibitor creates a direct catalyst for future FDA approval and competitive shifts in the pharma landscape. | news | +8.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-12 | XLU | Oil tanker CEO sees Hormuz ship traffic quickly increasing if U.S. and Iran reach a deal | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-12 | XLV | The initiation of a Phase 2a trial represents a key milestone in the biotech R&D pipeline and clinical development capacity. | news | -0.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-12 | XLU | Proposed Iran-U.S. deal would reopen Hormuz strait and lift oil sanctions, Iran state media says | news | -2.80 | 2 |
| 2026-06-12 | XLK | Oracle Beat Earnings but the Stock Fell 25% From Highs — Is the EMA200 at $190 the Opportunity? - TradingKey | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-12 | XLE | Crude prices sustained above $100 due to geopolitical conflict significantly expands upstream margins for E&P and integrated oil majors. | news | +5.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-12 | XLC | Regulatory pushback in Europe against major media consolidation could hinder WBD's scaling and streaming strategy. | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-11 | XLI | The creation of a pure-play aerospace entity directly impacts the structural outlook for aircraft delivery and engine OEM exposure. | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-11 | XLY | Increased competition in the EV battery supply chain affects the long-term cost structures and market share of top sector weights TSLA and GM. | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-11 | XLRE | Utilities Regain Attention As AI Data Centers Fuel Grid Expansion - Kalkine Media | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-11 | XLE | Oil Prices Fluctuate Amid U.S. Strikes on Iran - GuruFocus | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-11 | XLE | Supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz directly trigger higher crude spot prices, benefiting upstream producers. | news | +6.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-11 | XLK | Strategic partnerships in the testing and equipment space signal health in the semiconductor supply chain and future billings. | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-11 | XLU | State PUC outcomes for gas rate cases directly impact authorized ROE and utility earnings. | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-11 | XLP | Expansion of delivery infrastructure supports volume growth and market share retention against e-commerce competitors. | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-11 | XLU | Large-scale debt financing is critical for utility capex, though floating rates increase sensitivity to interest rate volatility. | news | -3.60 | 1 |
| 2026-06-11 | XLK | Applied Materials reporting a growth inflection is a leading indicator for global semiconductor billings and hyperscaler capex execution. | news | +6.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-11 | XLV | Label expansions and new regional approvals for major oncology drugs like Enhertu drive revenue growth for large-cap pharma. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-11 | XLB | Supply constraints in key construction metals like aluminium support pricing power and margins for building material providers. | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-11 | XLRE | Expanded access to bank credit improves refinancing flexibility and liquidity for REITs, directly addressing the bank lending macro trigger. | news | +6.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-11 | XLRE | Successful debt pricing in lower-rate currencies like the Yen helps manage interest expense and cap rate spreads for the top industrial REIT. | news | +5.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-11 | XLK | Oracle Stock Slides After Company Unveils Soaring AI Spending | news | +3.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-11 | XLK | Expansion of EDA tool partnerships for agentic AI chips directly supports the semiconductor design and manufacturing cycle. | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-11 | XLK | Trump's Iran Encore Sinks Nasdaq 2%, Oracle's Capex Tab Comes Due - ChartMill | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-11 | XLK | Oracle beats on earnings, but stock drops on plans to raise another $20 billion | news | +6.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-11 | XLK | Oracle Beat Earnings but the Stock Fell 25% From Highs — Is the EMA200 at $190 the Opportunity? - TradingKey | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-11 | XLE | Dow Jones Futures Tumble As Trump Says Iran Will 'Have To Pay The Price'; CPI Inflation On Tap | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-11 | XLI | Strategic divestitures in electrical equipment leaders like Eaton refocus capital toward high-growth industrial and electrical segments. | news | +5.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-11 | XLV | A $1B validation deal from sector-leader Lilly provides significant R&D funding and M&A pipeline validation for the biotech sub-segment. | news | +5.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-11 | XLU | Management's strategy to manage data center load without ratepayer friction supports the multi-year load-growth thesis and regulatory stability. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-11 | XLF | Increased debt issuance for AI infrastructure drives investment banking fees and credit growth for capital markets firms. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-11 | XLV | The initiation of a Phase 2a trial represents a key milestone in the biotech R&D pipeline and clinical development capacity. | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-10 | XLK | WWDC 2026: How Apple's New Siri AI Could Change The iPhone Experience - Business Today | news | +1.00 | 1 |