Conviction58.0
SPY weight1.9%
+ Tilt-0.12 pp
= Target1.8%
Current weight (drives NAV)1.8%vs target +0.00 pp
11
Sectors Tracked
2026-05-14
Tracking Since
Day 36
of Daily Monitoring
2026-06-18
Current Date
Alpha vs SPY, since launch
+4.02%
Vega total return minus SPY total return. Positive means Vega is ahead of the index.
Vega NAV
104.83
SPY NAV
100.82
Both NAVs start at 100 on the pilot launch date.
11 sectors
Current sector calls
Each card: SPY weight, plus Vega's tilt, equals Vega's target weight. Conviction and valuation on the side.
Conviction60.5
SPY weight10.0%
+ Tilt-0.47 pp
= Target9.6%
Current weight (drives NAV)9.6%vs target +0.09 pp
Conviction72.7
SPY weight3.1%
+ Tilt+0.12 pp
= Target3.2%
Current weight (drives NAV)3.2%vs target -0.05 pp
Conviction60.3
SPY weight12.0%
+ Tilt-0.58 pp
= Target11.5%
Current weight (drives NAV)11.4%vs target -0.02 pp
Conviction69.7
SPY weight8.8%
+ Tilt+0.15 pp
= Target8.9%
Current weight (drives NAV)8.9%vs target -0.01 pp
Conviction79.2
SPY weight37.5%
+ Tilt+3.17 pp
= Target40.6%
Current weight (drives NAV)40.4%vs target -0.23 pp
Conviction53.6
SPY weight4.7%
+ Tilt-0.45 pp
= Target4.2%
Current weight (drives NAV)4.3%vs target +0.06 pp
Conviction64.2
SPY weight1.8%
+ Tilt-0.04 pp
= Target1.8%
Current weight (drives NAV)1.8%vs target +0.03 pp
Conviction64.7
SPY weight2.1%
+ Tilt-0.04 pp
= Target2.1%
Current weight (drives NAV)2.1%vs target -0.01 pp
Conviction60.5
SPY weight8.5%
+ Tilt-0.40 pp
= Target8.1%
Current weight (drives NAV)8.2%vs target +0.06 pp
Conviction50.9
SPY weight9.3%
+ Tilt-1.07 pp
= Target8.2%
Current weight (drives NAV)8.3%vs target +0.07 pp
SPY mix and Vega tilt
Where Vega is above or below SPY
SPY sector weight, Vega's tilt, Vega target weight, and Vega's current weight.
SPY sector weight + Tilt = Vega target weight. Target weight is where Vega wants to be today after applying its sector tilt. Current Vega weight is where the portfolio actually sits today; it can lag the target because Vega only rebalances when the gap is wide enough (rebalance band: 5 pp). Vega NAV is compounded using the current weight, so headline alpha vs SPY reflects executed positioning, not the model's intended target.
| Sector | SPY sector weight | Tilt vs SPY | Vega target weight | Current Vega weight | Vega view | Conviction | Valuation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MaterialsXLB | 1.9% | -0.12 ppLess than SPY | 1.8% | 1.8% | UNDERWEIGHT | 58.0 | Expensive by EV/EBITDA |
| Communication ServicesXLC | 10.0% | -0.47 ppLess than SPY | 9.6% | 9.6% | UNDERWEIGHT | 60.5 | Neutral by PEG |
| EnergyXLE | 3.1% | +0.12 ppMore than SPY | 3.2% | 3.2% | OVERWEIGHT | 72.7 | Cheap by EV/EBITDA |
| FinancialsXLF | 12.0% | -0.58 ppLess than SPY | 11.5% | 11.4% | UNDERWEIGHT | 60.3 | Expensive by P/B |
| IndustrialsXLI | 8.8% | +0.15 ppMore than SPY | 8.9% | 8.9% | OVERWEIGHT | 69.7 | Expensive by EV/EBITDA |
| Information TechnologyXLK | 37.5% | +3.17 ppMore than SPY | 40.6% | 40.4% | OVERWEIGHT | 79.2 | Neutral by PEG |
| Consumer StaplesXLP | 4.7% | -0.45 ppLess than SPY | 4.2% | 4.3% | UNDERWEIGHT | 53.6 | Cheap by P/E |
| Real EstateXLRE | 1.8% | -0.04 ppLess than SPY | 1.8% | 1.8% | NEUTRAL | 64.2 | Cheap by Price/FFO |
| UtilitiesXLU | 2.1% | -0.04 ppLess than SPY | 2.1% | 2.1% | NEUTRAL | 64.7 | Neutral by P/E |
| Health CareXLV | 8.5% | -0.40 ppLess than SPY | 8.1% | 8.2% | UNDERWEIGHT | 60.5 | Cheap by P/E |
| Consumer DiscretionaryXLY | 9.3% | -1.07 ppLess than SPY | 8.2% | 8.3% | UNDERWEIGHT | 50.9 | Neutral by EV/EBITDA |
Recent events
Events noted by sector
Score impact is the model's recorded event effect for the sector.
| Date | Sector | Event noted | Source | Score impact | Sectors affected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-18 | XLP | New leadership in Europe and Latin America/Canada directly impacts execution of smoke-free volume transitions and international growth. | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-18 | XLRE | The expansion of AI-specific data center capacity directly supports the structural growth thesis for EQIX and the broader data center REIT sub-sector. | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-18 | XLC | Regulatory concessions in major M&A activity signal a path forward for sector consolidation and shifting streaming market share. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-18 | XLB | Best CD rates today, Wednesday, June 17, 2026: Earn up to 4% APY | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-18 | XLV | Successful mid-stage private funding rounds indicate healthy R&D capacity and investor appetite for biotech. | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-18 | XLI | Mortgage rates are now falling but demand is still weaker | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-18 | XLU | Mortgage and refinance interest rates today, Wednesday, June 17, 2026: Fixed rates continue to fall | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-18 | XLU | Mortgage rates are now falling but demand is still weaker | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-18 | XLB | A significant upward revision in gold price targets directly impacts the margins and valuation of top sector constituent Newmont (NEM). | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-18 | XLB | Bitcoin and ethereum prices today, Wednesday, June 17, 2026: Much higher this week compared to last | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-18 | XLB | Mortgage and refinance interest rates today, Wednesday, June 17, 2026: Fixed rates continue to fall | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-18 | XLRE | Mortgage and refinance interest rates today, Wednesday, June 17, 2026: Fixed rates continue to fall | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-18 | XLE | A massive decline in US crude stocks is a primary bullish trigger for crude prices and E&P margins. | news | +8.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-18 | XLB | Mortgage rates are now falling but demand is still weaker | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-18 | XLC | Major consolidation in the streaming and content space impacts competitive dynamics and content spending for top XLC constituents like Disney and Netflix. | news | +8.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-18 | XLF | Mortgage and refinance interest rates today, Wednesday, June 17, 2026: Fixed rates continue to fall | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-18 | XLI | Mortgage and refinance interest rates today, Wednesday, June 17, 2026: Fixed rates continue to fall | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-18 | XLY | Significant capex increases by the sector's second-largest constituent indicate aggressive expansion in EV production and technology. | news | +8.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-18 | XLI | HELOC and home equity loan interest rates today, Wednesday, June 17, 2026: Rate shopping is key, no matter if rates are rising or falling | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-18 | XLB | Silver prices today, Wednesday, June 17, 2026: Up 9.9% since last week | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-18 | XLI | Legislative restrictions on capital allocation for defense primes like RTX and LMT directly impact shareholder returns and sector valuation. | news | -6.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-18 | XLV | This high-value R&D collaboration indicates strong biotech funding and pipeline development for a mid-cap pharma player. | news | +3.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-18 | XLF | CME is defending its market share and regulatory moat in the capital markets sub-segment against new competitive asset classes. | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-18 | XLRE | Mortgage rates are now falling but demand is still weaker | news | -0.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-18 | XLF | Mortgage rates are now falling but demand is still weaker | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-18 | XLK | A confirmed partnership between the top consumer hardware firm (AAPL) and a major semi firm (INTC) for domestic production shifts the supply chain and impacts semiconductor billings. | news | +10.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-18 | XLV | A major security breach at the sector's largest constituent poses operational and IP risks to the pharma supply chain. | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-18 | XLU | Large-scale capex for grid expansion and renewables directly supports the multi-year load-growth and decarbonization thesis for a top-5 sector constituent. | news | +8.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-17 | XLI | A 71% surge in orders for GE Vernova indicates strong demand for electrical equipment and power infrastructure, a key industrial sub-segment. | news | +11.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-17 | XLB | HELOC and home equity loan interest rates today, Wednesday, June 17, 2026: Rate shopping is key, no matter if rates are rising or falling | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-17 | XLE | A contraction in global inventory buffers is a bullish signal for crude prices as it indicates a tighter supply-demand balance. | news | +6.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-17 | XLB | Silver prices today, Wednesday, June 17, 2026: Up 9.9% since last week | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-17 | XLU | Mortgage and refinance interest rates today, Wednesday, June 17, 2026: Fixed rates continue to fall | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-17 | XLU | Mortgage rates are now falling but demand is still weaker | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-17 | XLE | New international production deals expand the E&P footprint and long-term supply capacity for integrated majors. | news | +7.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-17 | XLU | Rate case filings are the primary mechanism for regulated utilities to secure ROE and rate-base growth approvals. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-17 | XLC | Regulatory concessions in major M&A activity signal a path forward for sector consolidation and shifting streaming market share. | news | +3.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-17 | XLC | Omnicom's earnings beat and core growth serve as a primary indicator for the health of the global advertising spend environment. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-17 | XLK | Nvidia's massive capital raise supports continued R&D and production scaling for AI GPUs, a core driver of sector revenue. | news | +10.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-17 | XLI | Mortgage rates are now falling but demand is still weaker | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-17 | XLY | Mortgage and refinance interest rates today, Wednesday, June 17, 2026: Fixed rates continue to fall | news | +3.00 | 2 |
| 2026-06-17 | XLRE | Mortgage and refinance interest rates today, Wednesday, June 17, 2026: Fixed rates continue to fall | news | +3.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-17 | XLE | Improved recovery rates and focus on major gas plays support upstream margins for gas-weighted E&Ps. | news | +6.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-17 | XLRE | The expansion of AI infrastructure partnerships directly supports the structural acceleration of data center leasing for EQIX. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-17 | XLY | Mortgage rates are now falling but demand is still weaker | news | -3.60 | 1 |
| 2026-06-17 | XLRE | Mortgage rates are now falling but demand is still weaker | news | +0.60 | 1 |
| 2026-06-17 | XLB | Mortgage rates are now falling but demand is still weaker | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-17 | XLF | Mortgage rates are now falling but demand is still weaker | news | -2.40 | 1 |
| 2026-06-17 | XLY | Regulatory action against AMZN's advertising business threatens a high-margin revenue stream for the sector's largest constituent. | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-17 | XLE | Tightening sanctions on a major global producer typically restricts supply, providing upward pressure on crude spot prices. | news | +6.00 | 1 |