Conviction57.9
SPY weight1.9%
+ Tilt-0.13 pp
= Target1.8%
Current weight (drives NAV)1.8%vs target +0.01 pp
11
Sectors Tracked
2026-05-14
Tracking Since
Day 37
of Daily Monitoring
2026-06-19
Current Date
Alpha vs SPY, since launch
+4.02%
Vega total return minus SPY total return. Positive means Vega is ahead of the index.
Vega NAV
104.83
SPY NAV
100.82
Both NAVs start at 100 on the pilot launch date.
11 sectors
Current sector calls
Each card: SPY weight, plus Vega's tilt, equals Vega's target weight. Conviction and valuation on the side.
Conviction60.8
SPY weight10.0%
+ Tilt-0.47 pp
= Target9.6%
Current weight (drives NAV)9.6%vs target +0.09 pp
Conviction70.2
SPY weight3.1%
+ Tilt+0.06 pp
= Target3.2%
Current weight (drives NAV)3.2%vs target +0.01 pp
Conviction60.5
SPY weight12.0%
+ Tilt-0.59 pp
= Target11.4%
Current weight (drives NAV)11.4%vs target -0.01 pp
Conviction69.1
SPY weight8.8%
+ Tilt+0.10 pp
= Target8.9%
Current weight (drives NAV)8.9%vs target +0.04 pp
Conviction79.4
SPY weight37.5%
+ Tilt+3.12 pp
= Target40.6%
Current weight (drives NAV)40.4%vs target -0.18 pp
Conviction53.5
SPY weight4.7%
+ Tilt-0.46 pp
= Target4.2%
Current weight (drives NAV)4.3%vs target +0.07 pp
Conviction64.3
SPY weight1.8%
+ Tilt-0.04 pp
= Target1.8%
Current weight (drives NAV)1.8%vs target +0.03 pp
Conviction64.8
SPY weight2.1%
+ Tilt-0.04 pp
= Target2.1%
Current weight (drives NAV)2.1%vs target -0.01 pp
Conviction60.6
SPY weight8.5%
+ Tilt-0.41 pp
= Target8.1%
Current weight (drives NAV)8.2%vs target +0.07 pp
Conviction54.3
SPY weight9.3%
+ Tilt-0.86 pp
= Target8.4%
Current weight (drives NAV)8.3%vs target -0.14 pp
SPY mix and Vega tilt
Where Vega is above or below SPY
SPY sector weight, Vega's tilt, Vega target weight, and Vega's current weight.
SPY sector weight + Tilt = Vega target weight. Target weight is where Vega wants to be today after applying its sector tilt. Current Vega weight is where the portfolio actually sits today; it can lag the target because Vega only rebalances when the gap is wide enough (rebalance band: 5 pp). Vega NAV is compounded using the current weight, so headline alpha vs SPY reflects executed positioning, not the model's intended target.
| Sector | SPY sector weight | Tilt vs SPY | Vega target weight | Current Vega weight | Vega view | Conviction | Valuation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MaterialsXLB | 1.9% | -0.13 ppLess than SPY | 1.8% | 1.8% | UNDERWEIGHT | 57.9 | Expensive by EV/EBITDA |
| Communication ServicesXLC | 10.0% | -0.47 ppLess than SPY | 9.6% | 9.6% | UNDERWEIGHT | 60.8 | Neutral by PEG |
| EnergyXLE | 3.1% | +0.06 ppMore than SPY | 3.2% | 3.2% | OVERWEIGHT | 70.2 | Cheap by EV/EBITDA |
| FinancialsXLF | 12.0% | -0.59 ppLess than SPY | 11.4% | 11.4% | UNDERWEIGHT | 60.5 | Expensive by P/B |
| IndustrialsXLI | 8.8% | +0.10 ppMore than SPY | 8.9% | 8.9% | OVERWEIGHT | 69.1 | Expensive by EV/EBITDA |
| Information TechnologyXLK | 37.5% | +3.12 ppMore than SPY | 40.6% | 40.4% | OVERWEIGHT | 79.4 | Neutral by PEG |
| Consumer StaplesXLP | 4.7% | -0.46 ppLess than SPY | 4.2% | 4.3% | UNDERWEIGHT | 53.5 | Cheap by P/E |
| Real EstateXLRE | 1.8% | -0.04 ppLess than SPY | 1.8% | 1.8% | NEUTRAL | 64.3 | Cheap by Price/FFO |
| UtilitiesXLU | 2.1% | -0.04 ppLess than SPY | 2.1% | 2.1% | NEUTRAL | 64.8 | Cheap by P/E |
| Health CareXLV | 8.5% | -0.41 ppLess than SPY | 8.1% | 8.2% | UNDERWEIGHT | 60.6 | Cheap by P/E |
| Consumer DiscretionaryXLY | 9.3% | -0.86 ppLess than SPY | 8.4% | 8.3% | UNDERWEIGHT | 54.3 | Neutral by EV/EBITDA |
Recent events
Events noted by sector
Score impact is the model's recorded event effect for the sector.
| Date | Sector | Event noted | Source | Score impact | Sectors affected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-19 | XLK | A confirmed partnership between the top consumer hardware firm (AAPL) and a major semi firm (INTC) for domestic production shifts the supply chain and impacts semiconductor billings. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-19 | XLV | The departure of a top-tier constituent's CFO creates leadership uncertainty during a period of portfolio transition. | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-19 | XLK | Record margins at a top semi-cap equipment provider indicate strong pricing power and high demand for advanced chip manufacturing tools. | news | +9.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-19 | XLY | Significant capex increases by the sector's second-largest constituent indicate aggressive expansion in EV production and technology. | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-19 | XLF | Transparency warnings from index providers impact capital markets and the valuation of equity books held by global financial institutions. | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-19 | XLY | U.S.-Iran deal in photos: ships in the Strait of Hormuz, daily life in Tehran | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-19 | XLV | Successful mid-stage private funding rounds indicate healthy R&D capacity and investor appetite for biotech. | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-19 | XLY | Hormuz relief may not ease the economic toll that's already 'baked in,' analysts warn | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-19 | XLY | OPEC chief dismisses IEA supply glut forecast as 'critical' Strait of Hormuz reopens | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-19 | XLY | Brent oil dips below $80 as postponed U.S.-Iran talks temper optimism over ceasefire progress | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-19 | XLV | A $1B acquisition by a major biotech player signals strong M&A momentum and portfolio replenishment in the sector. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-19 | XLE | Brent oil dips below $80 as postponed U.S.-Iran talks temper optimism over ceasefire progress | news | -2.40 | 1 |
| 2026-06-19 | XLE | A massive decline in US crude stocks is a primary bullish trigger for crude prices and E&P margins. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-19 | XLF | Lowering capital buffers is a regulatory shift that directly enables increased loan volumes and credit growth for major banks. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-19 | XLE | Trump Signs Temporary Peace Deal with Iran, Oil Prices Drop - GuruFocus | news | -2.40 | 1 |
| 2026-06-19 | XLE | U.S.-Iran deal in photos: ships in the Strait of Hormuz, daily life in Tehran | news | -2.40 | 1 |
| 2026-06-19 | XLE | Increased production targets from OPEC members like Libya can lead to higher global supply and downward pressure on crude prices. | news | -7.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-19 | XLRE | New AI infrastructure partnerships directly support the structural acceleration of data center leasing for EQIX. | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-19 | XLC | A recovery in ad-spend is a primary macro trigger for the digital advertising and media agencies that comprise a significant portion of XLC revenue. | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-19 | XLY | Trump Signs Temporary Peace Deal with Iran, Oil Prices Drop - GuruFocus | news | +5.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-19 | XLV | Confirmed industry-wide M&A trends are critical for offsetting upcoming patent cliffs for large-cap pharma. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-19 | XLP | New leadership in Europe and Latin America/Canada directly impacts execution of smoke-free volume transitions and international growth. | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-18 | XLV | A major security breach at the sector's largest constituent poses operational and IP risks to the pharma supply chain. | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-18 | XLB | Best CD rates today, Wednesday, June 17, 2026: Earn up to 4% APY | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-18 | XLI | HELOC and home equity loan interest rates today, Wednesday, June 17, 2026: Rate shopping is key, no matter if rates are rising or falling | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-18 | XLC | Major consolidation in the streaming and content space impacts competitive dynamics and content spending for top XLC constituents like Disney and Netflix. | news | +9.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-18 | XLB | Silver prices today, Wednesday, June 17, 2026: Up 9.9% since last week | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-18 | XLI | Legislative restrictions on capital allocation for defense primes like RTX and LMT directly impact shareholder returns and sector valuation. | news | -8.40 | 1 |
| 2026-06-18 | XLP | New leadership in Europe and Latin America/Canada directly impacts execution of smoke-free volume transitions and international growth. | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-18 | XLF | CME is defending its market share and regulatory moat in the capital markets sub-segment against new competitive asset classes. | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-18 | XLU | Large-scale capex for grid expansion and renewables directly supports the multi-year load-growth and decarbonization thesis for a top-5 sector constituent. | news | +11.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-18 | XLC | Regulatory concessions in major M&A activity signal a path forward for sector consolidation and shifting streaming market share. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-18 | XLV | Successful mid-stage private funding rounds indicate healthy R&D capacity and investor appetite for biotech. | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-18 | XLU | Mortgage rates are now falling but demand is still weaker | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-18 | XLB | Bitcoin and ethereum prices today, Wednesday, June 17, 2026: Much higher this week compared to last | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-18 | XLB | A significant upward revision in gold price targets directly impacts the margins and valuation of top sector constituent Newmont (NEM). | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-18 | XLU | Mortgage and refinance interest rates today, Wednesday, June 17, 2026: Fixed rates continue to fall | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-18 | XLI | Mortgage rates are now falling but demand is still weaker | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-18 | XLRE | Mortgage rates are now falling but demand is still weaker | news | -0.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-18 | XLI | Mortgage and refinance interest rates today, Wednesday, June 17, 2026: Fixed rates continue to fall | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-18 | XLF | Mortgage and refinance interest rates today, Wednesday, June 17, 2026: Fixed rates continue to fall | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-18 | XLB | Mortgage rates are now falling but demand is still weaker | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-18 | XLRE | Mortgage and refinance interest rates today, Wednesday, June 17, 2026: Fixed rates continue to fall | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-18 | XLB | Mortgage and refinance interest rates today, Wednesday, June 17, 2026: Fixed rates continue to fall | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-18 | XLE | A massive decline in US crude stocks is a primary bullish trigger for crude prices and E&P margins. | news | +8.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-18 | XLRE | The expansion of AI-specific data center capacity directly supports the structural growth thesis for EQIX and the broader data center REIT sub-sector. | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-18 | XLF | Mortgage rates are now falling but demand is still weaker | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-18 | XLY | Significant capex increases by the sector's second-largest constituent indicate aggressive expansion in EV production and technology. | news | +8.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-18 | XLV | This high-value R&D collaboration indicates strong biotech funding and pipeline development for a mid-cap pharma player. | news | +3.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-18 | XLK | A confirmed partnership between the top consumer hardware firm (AAPL) and a major semi firm (INTC) for domestic production shifts the supply chain and impacts semiconductor billings. | news | +10.00 | 1 |