Conviction51.6
SPY weight1.8%
+ Tilt-0.05 pp
= Target1.8%
Current weight (drives NAV)1.8%vs target +0.00 pp
11
Sectors Tracked
2026-05-14
Tracking Since
Day 8
of Daily Monitoring
2026-05-21
Current Date
Alpha vs SPY, since launch
+0.33%
Vega total return minus SPY total return. Positive means Vega is ahead of the index.
Vega NAV
100.45
SPY NAV
100.12
Both NAVs start at 100 on the pilot launch date.
11 sectors
Current sector calls
Each card: SPY weight, plus Vega's tilt, equals Vega's target weight. Conviction and valuation on the side.
Conviction51.2
SPY weight10.7%
+ Tilt-0.33 pp
= Target10.3%
Current weight (drives NAV)10.3%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction58.9
SPY weight3.4%
+ Tilt+0.09 pp
= Target3.5%
Current weight (drives NAV)3.5%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction56.0
SPY weight11.5%
+ Tilt+0.06 pp
= Target11.6%
Current weight (drives NAV)11.6%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction56.3
SPY weight8.3%
+ Tilt+0.07 pp
= Target8.4%
Current weight (drives NAV)8.4%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction61.3
SPY weight37.2%
+ Tilt+1.71 pp
= Target39.0%
Current weight (drives NAV)39.0%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction52.7
SPY weight4.9%
+ Tilt-0.10 pp
= Target4.8%
Current weight (drives NAV)4.8%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction47.7
SPY weight1.9%
+ Tilt-0.11 pp
= Target1.8%
Current weight (drives NAV)1.8%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction51.2
SPY weight2.2%
+ Tilt-0.07 pp
= Target2.1%
Current weight (drives NAV)2.1%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction50.3
SPY weight8.3%
+ Tilt-0.32 pp
= Target8.0%
Current weight (drives NAV)8.0%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction44.5
SPY weight9.7%
+ Tilt-0.80 pp
= Target8.9%
Current weight (drives NAV)8.9%vs target +0.00 pp
SPY mix and Vega tilt
Where Vega is above or below SPY
SPY sector weight, Vega's tilt, Vega target weight, and Vega's current weight.
SPY sector weight + Tilt = Vega target weight. Target weight is where Vega wants to be today after applying its sector tilt. Current Vega weight is where the portfolio actually sits today; it can lag the target because Vega only rebalances when the gap is wide enough (rebalance band: 5 pp). Vega NAV is compounded using the current weight, so headline alpha vs SPY reflects executed positioning, not the model's intended target.
| Sector | SPY sector weight | Tilt vs SPY | Vega target weight | Current Vega weight | Vega view | Conviction | Valuation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MaterialsXLB | 1.8% | -0.05 ppLess than SPY | 1.8% | 1.8% | UNDERWEIGHT | 51.6 | - |
| Communication ServicesXLC | 10.7% | -0.33 ppLess than SPY | 10.3% | 10.3% | UNDERWEIGHT | 51.2 | - |
| EnergyXLE | 3.4% | +0.09 ppMore than SPY | 3.5% | 3.5% | OVERWEIGHT | 58.9 | - |
| FinancialsXLF | 11.5% | +0.06 ppMore than SPY | 11.6% | 11.6% | OVERWEIGHT | 56.0 | - |
| IndustrialsXLI | 8.3% | +0.07 ppMore than SPY | 8.4% | 8.4% | OVERWEIGHT | 56.3 | - |
| Information TechnologyXLK | 37.2% | +1.71 ppMore than SPY | 39.0% | 39.0% | OVERWEIGHT | 61.3 | - |
| Consumer StaplesXLP | 4.9% | -0.10 ppLess than SPY | 4.8% | 4.8% | UNDERWEIGHT | 52.7 | - |
| Real EstateXLRE | 1.9% | -0.11 ppLess than SPY | 1.8% | 1.8% | UNDERWEIGHT | 47.7 | - |
| UtilitiesXLU | 2.2% | -0.07 ppLess than SPY | 2.1% | 2.1% | UNDERWEIGHT | 51.2 | - |
| Health CareXLV | 8.3% | -0.32 ppLess than SPY | 8.0% | 8.0% | UNDERWEIGHT | 50.3 | - |
| Consumer DiscretionaryXLY | 9.7% | -0.80 ppLess than SPY | 8.9% | 8.9% | UNDERWEIGHT | 44.5 | - |
Recent events
Events noted by sector
Score impact is the model's recorded event effect for the sector.
| Date | Sector | Event noted | Source | Score impact | Sectors affected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-21 | XLY | E.l.f. Beauty to walk back some tariff price increases amid high gas prices and consumer 'suffering' | news | -2.40 | 1 |
| 2026-05-21 | XLP | E.l.f. Beauty to walk back some tariff price increases amid high gas prices and consumer 'suffering' | news | -3.60 | 1 |
| 2026-05-21 | XLY | Widespread earnings contraction in the world's largest EV market signals margin compression and demand headwinds for the auto segment. | news | -4.80 | 1 |
| 2026-05-21 | XLI | Criminal charges regarding procurement fraud can lead to debarment from future DoD contracts and disrupt program funding. | news | -2.40 | 1 |
| 2026-05-21 | XLU | Surging earnings and new carbon-free agreements with hyperscalers validate the AI load-growth thesis for merchant nuclear power. | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-21 | XLI | The $25B funding request for a new missile defense layer provides significant multi-year contract visibility for defense primes like LMT and RTX. | news | +5.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-21 | XLV | The expansion of a government price aggregator bypassing PBMs creates significant pricing pressure and margin risk for branded pharma. | news | -10.80 | 1 |
| 2026-05-21 | XLB | Higher mortgage rates and diesel costs directly reduce construction starts and squeeze margins for aggregates and cement producers like Martin Marietta. | news | -4.80 | 1 |
| 2026-05-21 | XLY | Strong off-price retail performance and raised guidance indicate resilient consumer spending despite macro pressures. | news | +10.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-21 | XLI | Strong earnings and guidance from a key component supplier reflect high demand in the aerospace and defense sub-segments. | news | +5.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-21 | XLV | Pipeline advancement for Skyrizi helps mitigate future patent cliff risks by expanding indications and lifecycle management. | news | +5.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-21 | XLP | Walmart reports revenue growth of 7.3%, up 5.9% in constant currency (cc) - Business Wire | news | +3.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-21 | XLK | Deepening partnerships in the Chinese AI market expands the addressable demand for AMD's data-center accelerator hardware. | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-21 | XLK | AMD's multi-billion dollar investment in 2nm production scales next-gen AI infrastructure capacity. | news | +9.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-21 | XLP | The rapid growth of smoke-free volumes (IQOS, ZYN) is a structural driver for the tobacco segment's top-line growth. | news | +8.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-21 | XLP | A change in the CFO of a top-5 sector constituent is a material administrative event affecting strategic financial management. | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-21 | XLF | Major IPO mandates for Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley drive significant investment banking fee revenue within the capital markets sub-segment. | news | +6.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-21 | XLK | Nvidia's record data center revenue and guidance confirm massive hyperscaler capex and semiconductor demand. | news | +12.50 | 1 |
| 2026-05-21 | XLY | Walmart reports revenue growth of 7.3%, up 5.9% in constant currency (cc) - Business Wire | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-21 | XLY | Walmart issues worse-than-expected outlook as high gas prices hit shoppers | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-21 | XLU | This massive consolidation creates the world's largest regulated utility to specifically target AI and data-center power demand. | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-21 | XLU | NextEra Energy reshapes FPL leadership in planned transition - The Globe and Mail | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-21 | XLF | Expansion into crypto ETFs represents a new revenue stream and product diversification for a top-weighted capital markets constituent. | news | +1.80 | 1 |
| 2026-05-21 | XLB | Building materials companies like Martin Marietta are highly sensitive to construction volumes and interest-rate-driven cyclicality. | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-05-21 | XLV | J&J's launch of coronary catheters and robotic surgery results drives the MedTech procedure volume thesis. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-21 | XLE | The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and depletion of global stocks to record lows drives Brent crude above $100, significantly benefiting E&P margins. | news | +10.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-21 | XLC | New AI-integrated search and agent tools enhance user engagement and provide new monetization pathways for Google's ad-platform business. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-21 | XLP | Walmart issues worse-than-expected outlook as high gas prices hit shoppers | news | -0.20 | 1 |
| 2026-05-21 | XLK | Broadcom's new platform optimizes data-center AI workloads, supporting the continued expansion of enterprise AI infrastructure spending. | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-21 | XLY | Delaying stricter standards reduces immediate compliance costs for major automakers by an estimated $2 billion. | news | +5.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-21 | XLE | The $2.17B divestment allows Chevron to streamline its portfolio and focus on higher-margin upstream or core integrated operations. | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-20 | XLK | The entry of a major Chinese memory manufacturer into public markets signals increased competition and supply-side pressure for global memory leaders like Micron. | news | -3.60 | 1 |
| 2026-05-20 | XLK | Deepening partnerships in the Chinese AI market expands the addressable demand for AMD's data-center accelerator hardware. | news | +3.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-20 | XLF | Expansion into new markets with commercial banking teams aims to drive loan demand and credit growth for regional banks. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-20 | XLF | Boosting provisions indicates a proactive approach to potential credit deterioration, which is a headwind to bank EPS, but growing profits suggest underlying strength. | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-05-20 | XLK | Broadcom's new platform optimizes data-center AI workloads, supporting the continued expansion of enterprise AI infrastructure spending. | news | +3.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-20 | XLU | Surging earnings and new carbon-free agreements with hyperscalers validate the AI load-growth thesis for merchant nuclear power. | news | +3.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-20 | XLK | Rapid growth of low-cost Chinese DRAM production threatens the pricing power and market share of established memory incumbents. | news | -4.80 | 1 |
| 2026-05-20 | XLRE | Structural acceleration in data center leasing directly supports the long-term growth thesis for top constituents EQIX and DLR. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-20 | XLV | Mass turnover in FDA leadership and review units creates regulatory uncertainty for drug approval timelines. | news | -4.80 | 1 |
| 2026-05-20 | XLF | Reducing exposure to government securities could free up capital for other lending activities, potentially impacting credit growth, but the overall impact on the sector is unclear without more context. | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-20 | XLC | New AI-integrated search and agent tools enhance user engagement and provide new monetization pathways for Google's ad-platform business. | news | +9.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-20 | XLRE | Improving occupancy in senior housing assets is a direct driver of NOI for top-weighted healthcare REITs like WELL and VTR. | news | +3.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-20 | XLV | The reversal of the vaccine panel overhaul reduces immediate regulatory disruption risks for major pharma players. | news | +3.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-20 | XLB | Massive expansion in battery manufacturing drives structural demand for specialized chemicals and battery materials. | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-20 | XLV | J&J's launch of coronary catheters and robotic surgery results drives the MedTech procedure volume thesis. | news | +8.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-20 | XLB | Building materials companies like Martin Marietta are highly sensitive to construction volumes and interest-rate-driven cyclicality. | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-05-20 | XLV | New biotech IPOs and R&D partnerships indicate healthy biotech funding and innovation capacity. | news | +3.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-20 | XLF | Mortgage and refinance interest rates today, May 20, 2026: 30-year fixed hits highest rate since August '25 | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-20 | XLRE | Mortgage and refinance interest rates today, May 20, 2026: 30-year fixed hits highest rate since August '25 | news | -2.40 | 1 |