Conviction61.4
SPY weight1.9%
+ Tilt-0.10 pp
= Target1.8%
Current weight (drives NAV)1.8%vs target +0.00 pp
11
Sectors Tracked
2026-05-14
Tracking Since
Day 41
of Daily Monitoring
2026-06-23
Current Date
Alpha vs SPY, since launch
+4.95%
Vega total return minus SPY total return. Positive means Vega is ahead of the index.
Vega NAV
108.62
SPY NAV
103.67
Both NAVs start at 100 on the pilot launch date.
11 sectors
Current sector calls
Each card: SPY weight, plus Vega's tilt, equals Vega's target weight. Conviction and valuation on the side.
Conviction64.9
SPY weight9.7%
+ Tilt-0.30 pp
= Target9.4%
Current weight (drives NAV)9.4%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction54.9
SPY weight3.0%
+ Tilt-0.31 pp
= Target2.7%
Current weight (drives NAV)2.7%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction66.6
SPY weight11.8%
+ Tilt-0.23 pp
= Target11.6%
Current weight (drives NAV)11.6%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction70.2
SPY weight8.8%
+ Tilt+0.05 pp
= Target8.8%
Current weight (drives NAV)8.8%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction81.3
SPY weight38.7%
+ Tilt+3.19 pp
= Target41.9%
Current weight (drives NAV)41.9%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction53.2
SPY weight4.6%
+ Tilt-0.51 pp
= Target4.1%
Current weight (drives NAV)4.1%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction65.5
SPY weight1.8%
+ Tilt-0.05 pp
= Target1.8%
Current weight (drives NAV)1.8%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction60.7
SPY weight2.2%
+ Tilt-0.13 pp
= Target2.0%
Current weight (drives NAV)2.0%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction57.2
SPY weight8.4%
+ Tilt-0.71 pp
= Target7.7%
Current weight (drives NAV)7.7%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction55.5
SPY weight9.1%
+ Tilt-0.88 pp
= Target8.2%
Current weight (drives NAV)8.2%vs target +0.00 pp
SPY mix and Vega tilt
Where Vega is above or below SPY
SPY sector weight, Vega's tilt, Vega target weight, and Vega's current weight.
SPY sector weight + Tilt = Vega target weight. Target weight is where Vega wants to be today after applying its sector tilt. Current Vega weight is where the portfolio actually sits today; it can lag the target because Vega only rebalances when the gap is wide enough (rebalance band: 5 pp). Vega NAV is compounded using the current weight, so headline alpha vs SPY reflects executed positioning, not the model's intended target.
| Sector | SPY sector weight | Tilt vs SPY | Vega target weight | Current Vega weight | Vega view | Conviction | Valuation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MaterialsXLB | 1.9% | -0.10 ppLess than SPY | 1.8% | 1.8% | UNDERWEIGHT | 61.4 | Expensive by EV/EBITDA |
| Communication ServicesXLC | 9.7% | -0.30 ppLess than SPY | 9.4% | 9.4% | UNDERWEIGHT | 64.9 | Cheap by PEG |
| EnergyXLE | 3.0% | -0.31 ppLess than SPY | 2.7% | 2.7% | UNDERWEIGHT | 54.9 | Cheap by EV/EBITDA |
| FinancialsXLF | 11.8% | -0.23 ppLess than SPY | 11.6% | 11.6% | UNDERWEIGHT | 66.6 | Expensive by P/B |
| IndustrialsXLI | 8.8% | +0.05 ppMore than SPY | 8.8% | 8.8% | OVERWEIGHT | 70.2 | Expensive by EV/EBITDA |
| Information TechnologyXLK | 38.7% | +3.19 ppMore than SPY | 41.9% | 41.9% | OVERWEIGHT | 81.3 | Neutral by PEG |
| Consumer StaplesXLP | 4.6% | -0.51 ppLess than SPY | 4.1% | 4.1% | UNDERWEIGHT | 53.2 | Cheap by P/E |
| Real EstateXLRE | 1.8% | -0.05 ppLess than SPY | 1.8% | 1.8% | UNDERWEIGHT | 65.5 | Expensive by Price/FFO |
| UtilitiesXLU | 2.2% | -0.13 ppLess than SPY | 2.0% | 2.0% | UNDERWEIGHT | 60.7 | Cheap by P/E |
| Health CareXLV | 8.4% | -0.71 ppLess than SPY | 7.7% | 7.7% | UNDERWEIGHT | 57.2 | Cheap by P/E |
| Consumer DiscretionaryXLY | 9.1% | -0.88 ppLess than SPY | 8.2% | 8.2% | UNDERWEIGHT | 55.5 | Neutral by EV/EBITDA |
Recent events
Events noted by sector
Score impact is the model's recorded event effect for the sector.
| Date | Sector | Event noted | Source | Score impact | Sectors affected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | XLB | This massive acquisition significantly expands CRH's aggregates and infrastructure capacity to capture rising US construction spending. | news | +3.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-23 | XLB | 'We'll see' — Trump hedges on guarantee Iran won't use oil profits to rebuild military | news | +1.00 | 2 |
| 2026-06-23 | XLB | U.S. issues sweeping Iran oil sanctions waivers, unlocking billions in revenue for Tehran | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-23 | XLB | Treasury Department authorizes Iranian oil sales through August | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-23 | XLB | Asian refiners see little room for Iranian oil, leaving China as key buyer after US waiver | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-23 | XLC | A potential merger between NFLX and WBD would fundamentally consolidate the streaming market and impact content amortization scales. | news | -0.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-23 | XLE | The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and potential return of Iranian supply directly lowers crude spot prices, hurting E&P margins. | news | -6.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-23 | XLE | U.S. issues sweeping Iran oil sanctions waivers, unlocking billions in revenue for Tehran | news | -13.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-23 | XLE | Treasury Department authorizes Iranian oil sales through August | news | -12.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-23 | XLE | 'We'll see' — Trump hedges on guarantee Iran won't use oil profits to rebuild military | news | -9.60 | 1 |
| 2026-06-23 | XLE | Stocks waver, oil falls as traders weigh fragile Iran peace talks | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-23 | XLE | Asian refiners see little room for Iranian oil, leaving China as key buyer after US waiver | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-23 | XLE | Activist pressure on a major Permian producer to boost operational performance and asset sales typically drives shareholder value in the E&P sub-segment. | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-23 | XLE | Significant increases in gas production and infrastructure support the midstream and LNG-tied growth thesis. | news | -3.60 | 1 |
| 2026-06-23 | XLF | Lowering capital requirements for major banks (RY, TD, BNS) directly increases lending capacity and capital return flexibility. | news | +3.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-23 | XLF | Significant growth in net new assets and margin loan balances directly supports revenue growth for major capital markets and brokerage firms. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-23 | XLF | Best high-yield savings interest rates today, Tuesday, June 23, 2026: Earn up to 4.10% APY | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-23 | XLF | Best CD rates today, Tuesday, June 23, 2026: Lock in up to 4% APY today | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-23 | XLF | Mortgage and refinance interest rates today, Monday, June 22, 2026: Purchase and refinance rate spread grows | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-23 | XLF | HELOC and home equity loan rates, Monday, June 22, 2026: Borrowing need will dictate your interest rate | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-23 | XLF | Mortgage and refinance rates today, Tuesday, June 23, 2026: Rates are mixed this morning | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-23 | XLF | Treasury Department authorizes Iranian oil sales through August | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-23 | XLF | U.S. issues sweeping Iran oil sanctions waivers, unlocking billions in revenue for Tehran | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-23 | XLI | The mandate to accelerate missile production and the ban on buybacks directly impacts capital allocation and contract execution for major defense primes like RTX and LMT. | news | -8.40 | 1 |
| 2026-06-23 | XLI | Strategic capex in high-margin healthcare logistics supports volume growth and yield for the transport sub-segment. | news | +3.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-23 | XLK | The partnership integrates Nvidia RTX with Windows and cloud infrastructure, driving demand for high-end AI semis and enterprise software. | news | +10.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-23 | XLP | Consistent volume growth and successful premiumization of the Huggies brand are key leading indicators for household product margins. | news | +3.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-23 | XLP | Increased marketing spend and R&D allocation are aimed at reversing market share losses and improving organic volume trends. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-23 | XLRE | Declining new supply and high occupancy provide residential REITs with significant rental pricing power and NOI growth potential. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-23 | XLRE | This major acquisition provides immediate scale in high-growth urban markets, expanding the inorganic growth runway for a top-tier REIT. | news | +6.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-23 | XLRE | The shift toward data centers and towers in the index highlights the structural acceleration of digital infrastructure demand. | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-23 | XLU | The target cut highlights specific regulatory risks in North Carolina rate cases despite strong AI data center demand. | news | -3.60 | 1 |
| 2026-06-23 | XLU | Regulatory rejection of interconnection fees impacts utility revenue certainty and renewable integration processes. | news | -6.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-23 | XLU | Strong earnings and nuclear demand from AI data centers validate the sector's load-growth thesis. | news | +3.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-23 | XLU | The study outlines the scale of capex and infrastructure needed to meet state RPS targets and climate goals. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-23 | XLU | Treasury Department authorizes Iranian oil sales through August | news | -2.40 | 1 |
| 2026-06-23 | XLU | U.S. issues sweeping Iran oil sanctions waivers, unlocking billions in revenue for Tehran | news | -2.40 | 1 |
| 2026-06-23 | XLV | Record-breaking M&A spending levels indicate high R&D capacity and a robust exit environment for the biotech sub-segment. | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-23 | XLV | High denial rates for Medicare Advantage patients signal aggressive cost-containment that impacts managed care reputation and regulatory risk. | news | -3.80 | 1 |
| 2026-06-23 | XLY | A multi-billion dollar penalty and regulatory scrutiny on Amazon's high-margin advertising business directly impacts the sector's largest constituent's profitability. | news | -7.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-23 | XLY | The transition to software-defined vehicles is a structural shift in the auto segment required to maintain market share against Chinese NEV competitors. | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-23 | XLY | Treasury Department authorizes Iranian oil sales through August | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-23 | XLY | U.S. issues sweeping Iran oil sanctions waivers, unlocking billions in revenue for Tehran | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-23 | XLY | Asian refiners see little room for Iranian oil, leaving China as key buyer after US waiver | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-23 | XLY | HELOC and home equity loan rates, Monday, June 22, 2026: Borrowing need will dictate your interest rate | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-23 | XLY | Mortgage and refinance interest rates today, Monday, June 22, 2026: Purchase and refinance rate spread grows | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-22 | XLB | A major acquisition in the aggregates and construction materials space directly leverages US construction spending trends. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-22 | XLC | Expanding video podcast content enhances user engagement and stickiness through lower-cost alternative programming compared to scripted originals. | news | +6.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-22 | XLE | New production deals for pure E&Ps like COP directly impact upstream output and gas-weighted margins. | news | -4.80 | 1 |
| 2026-06-22 | XLE | The restart of a critical fuel artery stabilizes refined product distribution and prevents inventory imbalances on the Eastern Seaboard. | news | +1.00 | 1 |