Conviction62.4
SPY weight1.8%
+ Tilt-0.07 pp
= Target1.8%
Current weight (drives NAV)1.8%vs target +0.06 pp
11
Sectors Tracked
2026-05-14
Tracking Since
Day 50
of Daily Monitoring
2026-07-02
Current Date
Alpha vs SPY, since launch
+4.40%
Vega total return minus SPY total return. Positive means Vega is ahead of the index.
Vega NAV
105.64
SPY NAV
101.24
Both NAVs start at 100 on the pilot launch date.
11 sectors
Current sector calls
Each card: SPY weight, plus Vega's tilt, equals Vega's target weight. Conviction and valuation on the side.
Conviction63.1
SPY weight9.7%
+ Tilt-0.34 pp
= Target9.3%
Current weight (drives NAV)9.3%vs target +0.01 pp
Conviction50.1
SPY weight3.0%
+ Tilt-0.37 pp
= Target2.6%
Current weight (drives NAV)2.7%vs target +0.06 pp
Conviction dropped 16 points over 30 days
Conviction66.4
SPY weight11.7%
+ Tilt-0.14 pp
= Target11.6%
Current weight (drives NAV)11.8%vs target +0.19 pp
Conviction75.0
SPY weight8.9%
+ Tilt+0.43 pp
= Target9.3%
Current weight (drives NAV)9.4%vs target +0.11 pp
Conviction80.1
SPY weight37.9%
+ Tilt+3.17 pp
= Target41.1%
Current weight (drives NAV)40.6%vs target -0.47 pp
Conviction53.6
SPY weight4.5%
+ Tilt-0.46 pp
= Target4.1%
Current weight (drives NAV)4.2%vs target +0.11 pp
Conviction67.0
SPY weight1.8%
+ Tilt-0.01 pp
= Target1.8%
Current weight (drives NAV)1.9%vs target +0.06 pp
Conviction62.1
SPY weight2.2%
+ Tilt-0.09 pp
= Target2.1%
Current weight (drives NAV)2.1%vs target +0.04 pp
Conviction56.1
SPY weight8.9%
+ Tilt-0.74 pp
= Target8.1%
Current weight (drives NAV)8.1%vs target -0.06 pp
Conviction52.0
SPY weight9.3%
+ Tilt-1.04 pp
= Target8.2%
Current weight (drives NAV)8.1%vs target -0.13 pp
SPY mix and Vega tilt
Where Vega is above or below SPY
SPY sector weight, Vega's tilt, Vega target weight, and Vega's current weight.
SPY sector weight + Tilt = Vega target weight. Target weight is where Vega wants to be today after applying its sector tilt. Current Vega weight is where the portfolio actually sits today; it can lag the target because Vega only rebalances when the gap is wide enough (rebalance band: 5 pp). Vega NAV is compounded using the current weight, so headline alpha vs SPY reflects executed positioning, not the model's intended target.
| Sector | SPY sector weight | Tilt vs SPY | Vega target weight | Current Vega weight | Vega view | Conviction | Valuation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MaterialsXLB | 1.8% | -0.07 ppLess than SPY | 1.8% | 1.8% | NEUTRAL | 62.4 | Expensive by EV/EBITDA |
| Communication ServicesXLC | 9.7% | -0.34 ppLess than SPY | 9.3% | 9.3% | UNDERWEIGHT | 63.1 | Expensive by PEG |
| EnergyXLE | 3.0% | -0.37 ppLess than SPY | 2.6% | 2.7% | UNDERWEIGHT | 50.1 | Cheap by EV/EBITDA |
| FinancialsXLF | 11.7% | -0.14 ppLess than SPY | 11.6% | 11.8% | NEUTRAL | 66.4 | Expensive by P/B |
| IndustrialsXLI | 8.9% | +0.43 ppMore than SPY | 9.3% | 9.4% | OVERWEIGHT | 75.0 | Expensive by EV/EBITDA |
| Information TechnologyXLK | 37.9% | +3.17 ppMore than SPY | 41.1% | 40.6% | OVERWEIGHT | 80.1 | Neutral by PEG |
| Consumer StaplesXLP | 4.5% | -0.46 ppLess than SPY | 4.1% | 4.2% | UNDERWEIGHT | 53.6 | Cheap by P/E |
| Real EstateXLRE | 1.8% | -0.01 ppLess than SPY | 1.8% | 1.9% | OVERWEIGHT | 67.0 | Neutral by Price/FFO |
| UtilitiesXLU | 2.2% | -0.09 ppLess than SPY | 2.1% | 2.1% | NEUTRAL | 62.1 | Neutral by P/E |
| Health CareXLV | 8.9% | -0.74 ppLess than SPY | 8.1% | 8.1% | UNDERWEIGHT | 56.1 | Neutral by P/E |
| Consumer DiscretionaryXLY | 9.3% | -1.04 ppLess than SPY | 8.2% | 8.1% | UNDERWEIGHT | 52.0 | Expensive by EV/EBITDA |
Recent events
Events noted by sector
Score impact is the model's recorded event effect for the sector.
| Date | Sector | Event noted | Source | Score impact | Sectors affected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | XLB | Falling gold prices directly compress margins for major sector constituents like Newmont (NEM). | news | -4.80 | 1 |
| 2026-07-02 | XLB | Central banks cite crisis protection as key gold driver - scanx.trade | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-07-02 | XLB | Why Are Central Banks Buying So Much Gold? 90% Institutions Cite This Reason - Benzinga | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-07-02 | XLB | Gold Bulls May Need Fed Rate Cuts More Than Geopolitical Tensions - Benzinga | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-07-02 | XLB | This record acquisition significantly increases CRH's exposure to US infrastructure and construction spending. | news | +3.00 | 1 |
| 2026-07-02 | XLC | Direct-to-consumer satellite mobile services from SpaceX create a structural threat to postpaid net adds for VZ, T, and TMUS. | news | -6.00 | 1 |
| 2026-07-02 | XLC | The merger of major content libraries and studios impacts sector consolidation and regulatory risk for traditional media. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-07-02 | XLE | Total US inventories falling to the lowest levels since the 1980s creates a supply-side catalyst for higher crude prices. | news | +5.00 | 1 |
| 2026-07-02 | XLE | Oil prices on pace for fourth straight weekly loss as Trump sees progress in U.S.-Iran talks | news | -7.20 | 1 |
| 2026-07-02 | XLE | Direct natural gas-to-power contracts for AI data centers provide a structural demand floor for gas-weighted integrated majors. | news | +7.00 | 1 |
| 2026-07-02 | XLF | The OCC approval allows Morgan Stanley to expand into regulated digital asset custody and fiduciary services, impacting capital market operations. | news | +5.00 | 1 |
| 2026-07-02 | XLF | New regulatory frameworks for AI in finance could impact operational risk management and compliance costs for global banks. | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-07-02 | XLI | The new classified cloud infrastructure facilitates multi-year defense contract execution and digital modernization for defense primes. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-07-02 | XLK | Broadcom's ability to aggressively reduce debt and interest costs improves its balance sheet for sustained AI-related R&D and capital allocation. | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-07-02 | XLK | Advanced node roadmaps (2nm) are critical for the next generation of AI accelerators and hyperscaler custom silicon. | news | +6.00 | 1 |
| 2026-07-02 | XLK | Actual reported AI revenue growth from a top-5 sector constituent confirms the hyperscaler capex transmission to semiconductor earnings. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-07-02 | XLP | Walmart's shift toward high-margin digital advertising and marketplace growth offsets core retail margin pressure and signals strong digital volume trends. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-07-02 | XLP | Market share losses in North American beverages and snacks indicate volume headwinds, though partially mitigated by international growth. | news | -1.40 | 1 |
| 2026-07-02 | XLRE | This massive acquisition in the world's largest data center hub directly addresses the AI-driven demand thesis for a top-5 sector constituent. | news | +6.00 | 1 |
| 2026-07-02 | XLU | The landmark nuclear deal with Walmart validates the multi-year load-growth thesis driven by large corporate electrification and carbon-free energy needs. | news | +9.00 | 1 |
| 2026-07-02 | XLU | Capturing low natural gas prices via storage supports stable energy costs and protects margins for regulated gas utilities like SoCalGas. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-07-02 | XLU | Adjustments to commodity-linked credit facilities are critical for managing merchant power margins and liquidity against volatile input costs. | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-07-02 | XLV | Significant capital injection into biotech and high megaround volume are leading indicators for R&D capacity and M&A. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-07-02 | XLV | AI-driven R&D tools and high-value pacts (Takeda $600M) accelerate the drug development pipeline. | news | +3.00 | 1 |
| 2026-07-02 | XLV | Major label expansion for a gene therapy into broader age groups drives revenue for a large-cap pharma constituent. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-07-02 | XLV | Legal challenges to 340B pricing and ceiling prices impact pharma margins and regulatory risk. | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-07-02 | XLY | The expiration of USMCA protections threatens the cost structure and supply chain stability for major US automakers like GM and Ford. | news | -4.80 | 1 |
| 2026-07-02 | XLY | Direct reporting of US vehicle delivery trends, a primary driver for the automotive sub-segment of XLY. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-07-02 | XLY | Software monetization and feature parity across the fleet are key drivers for Tesla's margins and consumer value proposition. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-07-02 | XLY | Declining housing starts and construction spending are leading indicators for reduced demand at Home Depot and Lowe's. | news | -7.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-27 | XLB | Rising gold prices directly benefit major sector constituents like Newmont (NEM) by improving mining margins. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-27 | XLC | WBD's expansion into lifestyle merchandising and AI-driven ad partnerships provides high-margin revenue streams to offset content costs. | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-27 | XLC | Nate Hampton EA SPORTS™ College Football 27 Player Ratings - Launch Ratings - Electronic Arts Home Page | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-27 | XLE | Crude falling below $70 directly impacts E&P margins and tests the dividend sustainability of majors like XOM and CVX. | news | -15.90 | 1 |
| 2026-06-27 | XLE | A massive projected drawdown in global inventories is a primary bullish trigger for crude spot prices and upstream profitability. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-27 | XLE | Sourcing cheaper Venezuelan heavy crude directly improves refiner margins (crack spreads) for PSX. | news | +5.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-27 | XLF | High redemption requests in private credit suggest liquidity stress and potential asset quality concerns within capital markets segments. | news | -2.40 | 1 |
| 2026-06-27 | XLF | Expansion into digital asset products represents a new revenue stream for capital markets firms under evolving regulatory frameworks. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-27 | XLI | Increased engine deliveries and a massive services backlog provide high visibility for GE Aerospace, a top sector constituent. | news | +6.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-27 | XLI | Talks for GE’s engine for India's 5th-gen fighter project AMCA hit roadblock as US giant ‘raises cost by - The Times of India | news | -2.40 | 1 |
| 2026-06-27 | XLI | Why Trump's $700 million jet engine deal could transform Türkiye's KAAN fighter - The Times of India | news | +5.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-27 | XLI | Turkey’s KAAN Joins India’s AMCA as Yet Another “Indigenous” Fighter Jet To Be Powered by U.S. Engines - EurAsian Times | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-27 | XLK | Apple's attempt to source from CXMT highlights critical memory supply constraints affecting hardware production and margins. | news | -3.60 | 1 |
| 2026-06-27 | XLK | Qualcomm's diversification into data center and AI infrastructure signals a shift in semiconductor revenue mix toward high-growth tech capex. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-27 | XLK | Confirmation of the 2nm TPU timeline validates hyperscaler capex and custom AI silicon demand for AVGO. | news | +6.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-27 | XLP | As the sector's largest constituent, Walmart's guidance on fuel-driven consumer pressure directly signals potential volume headwinds and downtrading. | news | -7.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-27 | XLP | Expansion into high-margin advertising improves Walmart's ecosystem and supports its ability to keep prices low, driving traffic and private label growth. | news | +5.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-27 | XLRE | The massive credit facility and lower interest spread improve liquidity and refinancing flexibility for a major sector constituent. | news | +8.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-27 | XLRE | The partnership between two top-weight REITs leverages AI to optimize capital allocation and operational efficiency. | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-27 | XLRE | Legislative delays and high mortgage rates are constraining housing supply and affordability, impacting residential REIT pricing power. | news | -1.20 | 1 |