Conviction55.2
SPY weight1.8%
+ Tilt-0.06 pp
= Target1.8%
Current weight (drives NAV)1.8%vs target +0.00 pp
11
Sectors Tracked
2026-05-14
Tracking Since
Day 10
of Daily Monitoring
2026-05-23
Current Date
Alpha vs SPY, since launch
+0.77%
Vega total return minus SPY total return. Positive means Vega is ahead of the index.
Vega NAV
101.48
SPY NAV
100.71
Both NAVs start at 100 on the pilot launch date.
11 sectors
Current sector calls
Each card: SPY weight, plus Vega's tilt, equals Vega's target weight. Conviction and valuation on the side.
Conviction50.3
SPY weight10.6%
+ Tilt-0.72 pp
= Target9.9%
Current weight (drives NAV)9.9%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction62.2
SPY weight3.4%
+ Tilt+0.07 pp
= Target3.4%
Current weight (drives NAV)3.4%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction57.6
SPY weight11.5%
+ Tilt-0.15 pp
= Target11.4%
Current weight (drives NAV)11.4%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction61.7
SPY weight8.3%
+ Tilt+0.14 pp
= Target8.4%
Current weight (drives NAV)8.4%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction68.8
SPY weight37.3%
+ Tilt+2.60 pp
= Target39.9%
Current weight (drives NAV)39.9%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction53.8
SPY weight4.8%
+ Tilt-0.20 pp
= Target4.6%
Current weight (drives NAV)4.6%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction52.4
SPY weight1.9%
+ Tilt-0.10 pp
= Target1.8%
Current weight (drives NAV)1.8%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction58.9
SPY weight2.2%
+ Tilt-0.01 pp
= Target2.2%
Current weight (drives NAV)2.2%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction53.2
SPY weight8.4%
+ Tilt-0.38 pp
= Target8.0%
Current weight (drives NAV)8.0%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction45.5
SPY weight9.7%
+ Tilt-1.01 pp
= Target8.7%
Current weight (drives NAV)8.7%vs target +0.00 pp
SPY mix and Vega tilt
Where Vega is above or below SPY
SPY sector weight, Vega's tilt, Vega target weight, and Vega's current weight.
SPY sector weight + Tilt = Vega target weight. Target weight is where Vega wants to be today after applying its sector tilt. Current Vega weight is where the portfolio actually sits today; it can lag the target because Vega only rebalances when the gap is wide enough (rebalance band: 5 pp). Vega NAV is compounded using the current weight, so headline alpha vs SPY reflects executed positioning, not the model's intended target.
| Sector | SPY sector weight | Tilt vs SPY | Vega target weight | Current Vega weight | Vega view | Conviction | Valuation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MaterialsXLB | 1.8% | -0.06 ppLess than SPY | 1.8% | 1.8% | UNDERWEIGHT | 55.2 | - |
| Communication ServicesXLC | 10.6% | -0.72 ppLess than SPY | 9.9% | 9.9% | UNDERWEIGHT | 50.3 | - |
| EnergyXLE | 3.4% | +0.07 ppMore than SPY | 3.4% | 3.4% | OVERWEIGHT | 62.2 | - |
| FinancialsXLF | 11.5% | -0.15 ppLess than SPY | 11.4% | 11.4% | UNDERWEIGHT | 57.6 | - |
| IndustrialsXLI | 8.3% | +0.14 ppMore than SPY | 8.4% | 8.4% | OVERWEIGHT | 61.7 | - |
| Information TechnologyXLK | 37.3% | +2.60 ppMore than SPY | 39.9% | 39.9% | OVERWEIGHT | 68.8 | - |
| Consumer StaplesXLP | 4.8% | -0.20 ppLess than SPY | 4.6% | 4.6% | UNDERWEIGHT | 53.8 | - |
| Real EstateXLRE | 1.9% | -0.10 ppLess than SPY | 1.8% | 1.8% | UNDERWEIGHT | 52.4 | - |
| UtilitiesXLU | 2.2% | -0.01 ppLess than SPY | 2.2% | 2.2% | NEUTRAL | 58.9 | - |
| Health CareXLV | 8.4% | -0.38 ppLess than SPY | 8.0% | 8.0% | UNDERWEIGHT | 53.2 | - |
| Consumer DiscretionaryXLY | 9.7% | -1.01 ppLess than SPY | 8.7% | 8.7% | UNDERWEIGHT | 45.5 | - |
Recent events
Events noted by sector
Score impact is the model's recorded event effect for the sector.
| Date | Sector | Event noted | Source | Score impact | Sectors affected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | XLK | Nvidia Powers 52% Of Sovereign AI Projects — So Who's Really Sovereign? - Benzinga | news | +7.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-23 | XLK | Broadcom's record AI revenue growth confirms the strength of hyperscaler-adjacent data-center spending. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-23 | XLK | Nvidia Crushes Earnings, But AI Chip Supply Crunch Looms - Benzinga | news | +3.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-23 | XLK | AMD's $10B investment in advanced packaging directly supports the AI infrastructure demand and semiconductor billing cycle. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-23 | XLI | Large-scale electrical equipment orders for grid storage drive growth for GEV's power infrastructure segment. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-23 | XLI | The deal shifts CAT's profile toward power infrastructure and data center support, diversifying beyond traditional heavy machinery. | news | +5.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-23 | XLI | New defense propulsion contract for GE Aerospace provides multi-year visibility and aligns with the defense budget factor. | news | +10.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-23 | XLF | HELOC and home equity loan rates today, May 22, 2026: Rates stay low as some homeowners delay renovations | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-23 | XLF | Mortgage and refinance interest rates today, May 22, 2026: Rates finally move lower | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-23 | XLF | Leading a potentially record-breaking IPO generates significant advisory fees for major capital markets constituents. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-23 | XLF | A change in Fed leadership directly impacts the trajectory of interest rates and the regulatory environment for money-center banks. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-23 | XLE | Declining refined product inventories support higher crack spreads and refiner margins for companies like PSX and VLO. | news | +8.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-23 | XLE | War-related supply disruptions and surging export demand drive higher crude spot prices, benefiting integrated majors like XOM and CVX. | news | -4.80 | 1 |
| 2026-05-23 | XLE | Geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are structurally bidding up crude prices, directly benefiting XOM and CVX margins. | news | +7.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-23 | XLB | The acquisition expands CRH's exposure to US water infrastructure, directly benefiting from rising construction spending. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-23 | XLB | Surging copper prices directly improve margins for FCX and reflect robust demand from China and infrastructure projects. | news | +6.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-23 | XLF | Best CD rates today, May 22, 2026: Up to 4% APY return | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-05-23 | XLY | Trade barriers and tariff-driven supply chain shifts increase structural costs for global automakers. | news | -2.40 | 1 |
| 2026-05-23 | XLY | Strong performance at a top-5 XLY constituent (TJX) serves as a high-relevance indicator for resilient consumer spending. | news | +3.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-23 | XLY | Tesla's earnings beat and demand rebound directly impact the sector's second-largest constituent and the broader EV market outlook. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-23 | XLY | Strong earnings and raised guidance from a top-5 sector constituent indicate resilient consumer demand in the off-price retail segment. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-23 | XLV | Most-favored-nation pricing policies directly threaten the high-margin US pricing model for branded pharma. | news | -7.20 | 1 |
| 2026-05-23 | XLV | Large-scale M&A activity indicates strong capital availability and valuation support for the pharmaceutical sector. | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-23 | XLV | Large-scale M&A activity in the rare disease space signals strong capital flows and valuation support for pharma assets. | news | +5.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-23 | XLV | The first-ever FDA approval for HDV creates a new revenue stream for Gilead, a major biotech constituent. | news | +6.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-23 | XLF | Best high-yield savings interest rates today, May 22, 2026: Up to 4.10% APY return | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-05-23 | XLU | Nvidia Crushes Earnings, But AI Chip Supply Crunch Looms - Benzinga | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-23 | XLU | Strong earnings and regulatory wins in Texas validate the load-growth and rate-base expansion thesis for regulated utilities. | news | +7.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-23 | XLU | The massive capital plan and equity raise are specifically targeted at grid modernization for AI and data center load growth. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-23 | XLU | New dispatchable gas generation addresses rising ERCOT demand and strengthens Constellation's merchant power portfolio. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-23 | XLU | AEP's $6B capex increase and 63GW contracted load directly validate the AI and data-center load growth thesis. | news | +9.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-23 | XLRE | Nvidia Powers 52% Of Sovereign AI Projects — So Who's Really Sovereign? - Benzinga | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-23 | XLRE | Nvidia Crushes Earnings, But AI Chip Supply Crunch Looms - Benzinga | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-23 | XLRE | Mortgage and refinance interest rates today, May 22, 2026: Rates finally move lower | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-23 | XLRE | Strong FFO performance and easing supply pressures in West Coast markets directly impact NOI drivers for residential REITs. | news | +6.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-23 | XLP | Walmart Eats $175 Million Fuel Cost Hit To Protect Shoppers—Now It's Warning Of Inflation Ahead - Benzinga | news | -2.40 | 1 |
| 2026-05-23 | XLP | Walmart's record transaction volume and e-commerce growth serve as a primary indicator for consumer staples demand and pricing power. | news | +1.60 | 1 |
| 2026-05-23 | XLK | Continued hyperscaler adoption of Nvidia hardware validates the ongoing surge in tech capex. | news | +5.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-22 | XLY | Stellantis targets 35% North American sales increase, led by Ram Trucks and Chrysler revival | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-22 | XLY | Stellantis unveils $70 billion turnaround plan, targets positive cash flow by 2027 | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-22 | XLP | E.l.f. Beauty to walk back some tariff price increases amid high gas prices and consumer 'suffering' | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-22 | XLY | Stellantis to offer cars under $40k, diverging from market trends - marketplace.org | news | -2.40 | 1 |
| 2026-05-22 | XLY | Walmart plans price cuts using tariff refunds as shoppers get skittish | news | -0.40 | 2 |
| 2026-05-22 | XLP | Trump said he'd 'remember' companies that didn't apply for tariff refunds. Many of them are anyway | news | +7.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-22 | XLY | Walmart issues worse-than-expected outlook as high gas prices hit shoppers | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-05-22 | XLY | Strong performance at a top-5 XLY constituent (TJX) serves as a high-relevance indicator for resilient consumer spending. | news | +0.80 | 1 |
| 2026-05-22 | XLY | Price hikes and inventory hoarding in the world's third-largest auto market signal margin pressure and potential demand cooling. | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-05-22 | XLY | Strong off-price retail performance and raised guidance indicate resilient consumer spending despite macro pressures. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-22 | XLV | FDA approval of a novel once-weekly treatment provides a direct revenue catalyst for the biotech segment. | news | +8.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-22 | XLB | Linde's pricing power and industrial gas volume growth are key indicators of industrial end-market health and ISM Manufacturing trends. | news | -0.40 | 1 |