Conviction57.8
SPY weight1.9%
+ Tilt-0.12 pp
= Target1.8%
Current weight (drives NAV)1.8%vs target +0.00 pp
11
Sectors Tracked
2026-05-14
Tracking Since
Day 34
of Daily Monitoring
2026-06-16
Current Date
Alpha vs SPY, since launch
+3.78%
Vega total return minus SPY total return. Positive means Vega is ahead of the index.
Vega NAV
104.37
SPY NAV
100.59
Both NAVs start at 100 on the pilot launch date.
11 sectors
Current sector calls
Each card: SPY weight, plus Vega's tilt, equals Vega's target weight. Conviction and valuation on the side.
Conviction57.6
SPY weight10.1%
+ Tilt-0.65 pp
= Target9.4%
Current weight (drives NAV)9.4%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction67.5
SPY weight3.1%
+ Tilt+0.02 pp
= Target3.1%
Current weight (drives NAV)3.1%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction61.0
SPY weight11.7%
+ Tilt-0.47 pp
= Target11.2%
Current weight (drives NAV)11.2%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction69.0
SPY weight8.6%
+ Tilt+0.14 pp
= Target8.7%
Current weight (drives NAV)8.7%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction79.1
SPY weight37.9%
+ Tilt+3.33 pp
= Target41.2%
Current weight (drives NAV)41.2%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction53.5
SPY weight4.7%
+ Tilt-0.44 pp
= Target4.2%
Current weight (drives NAV)4.2%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction63.0
SPY weight1.8%
+ Tilt-0.05 pp
= Target1.8%
Current weight (drives NAV)1.8%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction62.2
SPY weight2.1%
+ Tilt-0.07 pp
= Target2.1%
Current weight (drives NAV)2.1%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction61.4
SPY weight8.5%
+ Tilt-0.31 pp
= Target8.2%
Current weight (drives NAV)8.2%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction49.8
SPY weight9.4%
+ Tilt-1.12 pp
= Target8.2%
Current weight (drives NAV)8.2%vs target +0.00 pp
SPY mix and Vega tilt
Where Vega is above or below SPY
SPY sector weight, Vega's tilt, Vega target weight, and Vega's current weight.
SPY sector weight + Tilt = Vega target weight. Target weight is where Vega wants to be today after applying its sector tilt. Current Vega weight is where the portfolio actually sits today; it can lag the target because Vega only rebalances when the gap is wide enough (rebalance band: 5 pp). Vega NAV is compounded using the current weight, so headline alpha vs SPY reflects executed positioning, not the model's intended target.
| Sector | SPY sector weight | Tilt vs SPY | Vega target weight | Current Vega weight | Vega view | Conviction | Valuation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MaterialsXLB | 1.9% | -0.12 ppLess than SPY | 1.8% | 1.8% | UNDERWEIGHT | 57.8 | Expensive by EV/EBITDA |
| Communication ServicesXLC | 10.1% | -0.65 ppLess than SPY | 9.4% | 9.4% | UNDERWEIGHT | 57.6 | Neutral by PEG |
| EnergyXLE | 3.1% | +0.02 ppMore than SPY | 3.1% | 3.1% | NEUTRAL | 67.5 | Cheap by EV/EBITDA |
| FinancialsXLF | 11.7% | -0.47 ppLess than SPY | 11.2% | 11.2% | UNDERWEIGHT | 61.0 | Expensive by P/B |
| IndustrialsXLI | 8.6% | +0.14 ppMore than SPY | 8.7% | 8.7% | OVERWEIGHT | 69.0 | Neutral by EV/EBITDA |
| Information TechnologyXLK | 37.9% | +3.33 ppMore than SPY | 41.2% | 41.2% | OVERWEIGHT | 79.1 | Cheap by PEG |
| Consumer StaplesXLP | 4.7% | -0.44 ppLess than SPY | 4.2% | 4.2% | UNDERWEIGHT | 53.5 | Neutral by P/E |
| Real EstateXLRE | 1.8% | -0.05 ppLess than SPY | 1.8% | 1.8% | UNDERWEIGHT | 63.0 | Neutral by Price/FFO |
| UtilitiesXLU | 2.1% | -0.07 ppLess than SPY | 2.1% | 2.1% | UNDERWEIGHT | 62.2 | Cheap by P/E |
| Health CareXLV | 8.5% | -0.31 ppLess than SPY | 8.2% | 8.2% | UNDERWEIGHT | 61.4 | Cheap by P/E |
| Consumer DiscretionaryXLY | 9.4% | -1.12 ppLess than SPY | 8.2% | 8.2% | UNDERWEIGHT | 49.8 | Neutral by EV/EBITDA |
Recent events
Events noted by sector
Score impact is the model's recorded event effect for the sector.
| Date | Sector | Event noted | Source | Score impact | Sectors affected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | XLB | U.S. crude drops below $80 for the first time since March as Iran deal is set to open Hormuz Strait | news | -3.60 | 1 |
| 2026-06-16 | XLB | CRH's earnings beat reflects strong demand and pricing power in the aggregates and construction materials market. | news | +5.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-16 | XLB | Oil prices drop to cheapest level since early days of Mideast conflict | news | -2.40 | 1 |
| 2026-06-16 | XLE | Tentative deal on ending the Iran war sends stocks soaring, oil prices to lowest levels in months - Barchart.com | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-16 | XLE | U.S. crude drops below $80 for the first time since March as Iran deal is set to open Hormuz Strait | news | -2.40 | 1 |
| 2026-06-16 | XLY | Regulatory scrutiny of Tesla's FSD technology poses a direct risk to the company's high-margin software revenue and brand reputation. | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-16 | XLB | Gold prices today, Monday, June 15: Gold moves higher following U.S., Iran ceasefire agreement | news | +3.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-16 | XLE | World leaders welcome U.S.-Iran deal as Europe signals sanctions relief, urges Hormuz reopening | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-16 | XLF | High-profile IPO mandates drive investment banking fee revenue for top-tier capital markets constituents. | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-16 | XLE | A potential deal with Iran would increase global supply, directly lowering crude spot prices and impacting E&P margins. | news | -4.80 | 1 |
| 2026-06-16 | XLI | Caterpillar's earnings beat and raised targets signal strong demand for heavy machinery and infrastructure equipment. | news | +3.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-16 | XLB | Caterpillar’s Revenue Hit $17.4 Billion in Q1: What the Income Statement Reveals for Investors - TIKR.com | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-16 | XLI | New international contracts for electrical equipment directly support the growth thesis for GE's power segment. | news | +3.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-16 | XLV | New FDA approvals for top-tier constituents like AbbVie are direct catalysts for revenue growth in the pharma segment. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-16 | XLE | Rising crude prices and inventory concerns directly impact the margins and valuation of the sector's largest constituent, XOM. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-16 | XLRE | The expansion of AI infrastructure partnerships directly supports the structural acceleration of data center leasing for EQIX. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-16 | XLB | World leaders welcome U.S.-Iran deal as Europe signals sanctions relief, urges Hormuz reopening | news | -6.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-16 | XLV | Expansion of Medicare price negotiations creates a long-term revenue overhang for major pharma constituents like LLY and MRK. | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-16 | XLC | Electronic Arts to expand in-game ads with launch of ‘EA Advertising’ - NewsNation | news | +5.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-16 | XLRE | New asset acquisitions in the experiential space drive net operating income and diversification for specialized REITs. | news | +3.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-16 | XLB | Dollar near 10-day low as US, Iran reach peace deal | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-16 | XLF | Significant capital deployment into real estate assets expands the firm's investment management and credit-linked book. | news | +3.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-16 | XLP | Aggressive promotional events drive volume growth and market share for the sector's largest constituent. | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-16 | XLE | Oil prices drop to cheapest level since early days of Mideast conflict | news | -2.40 | 1 |
| 2026-06-15 | XLE | Oil prices drop to cheapest level since early days of Mideast conflict | news | -4.80 | 1 |
| 2026-06-15 | XLU | The restart of nuclear capacity specifically for AI/data-center load directly supports the sector's power demand and clean energy growth thesis. | news | +10.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-15 | XLE | Trump heads to G7 summit in France after reaching deal to end war with Iran | news | -7.40 | 3 |
| 2026-06-15 | XLU | U.S. peace deal with Iran in question as Israel strikes Lebanon, Trump warns not to 'blow it' | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-15 | XLE | A potential deal with Iran would increase global supply, directly lowering crude spot prices and impacting E&P margins. | news | -7.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-15 | XLF | Trump heads to G7 summit in France after reaching deal to end war with Iran | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-15 | XLE | Tentative deal on ending the Iran war sends stocks soaring, oil prices to lowest levels in months - Barchart.com | news | -2.40 | 1 |
| 2026-06-15 | XLF | Increased debt issuance and high-profile IPO mandates directly drive investment banking revenue within the capital markets segment. | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-15 | XLV | Regulatory delays in clinical trials directly impact the biotech R&D pipeline and future approval timelines. | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-15 | XLV | Major US manufacturing expansions by JNJ and others secure supply chains against trade policy shifts, supporting long-term production stability. | news | +3.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-15 | XLE | A significant reduction in global inventories below the 5-year range is a primary bullish trigger for crude prices. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-15 | XLK | The Meta deal and UK investment directly impact hyperscaler capex and semiconductor billings for a major sector constituent. | news | +11.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-15 | XLI | The structural spin-off of Honeywell's aerospace unit is a major corporate action affecting a top-tier constituent in the aerospace sub-segment. | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-15 | XLY | Record EV sales directly impact the auto-segment EPS and validate the growth thesis for top constituent TSLA. | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-15 | XLP | Walmart's logistics improvements drive organic volume growth and market share gains in the mass retail segment. | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-15 | XLE | Modernization and production growth partnerships in Libya create demand for US-based oilfield services like SLB and HAL. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-15 | XLE | U.S. crude drops below $80 for the first time since March as Iran deal is set to open Hormuz Strait | news | -4.80 | 1 |
| 2026-06-15 | XLU | Key executive leadership changes at major infrastructure units impact the execution of long-term capex and policy-driven projects. | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-14 | XLB | Trump heads to G7 summit in France as world awaits Iran deal | news | +1.00 | 3 |
| 2026-06-14 | XLK | Broad-based gains in AI semiconductor stocks reflect positive cyclical momentum in global semiconductor billings and hyperscaler spending. | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-14 | XLI | Surging industrial employment and sector growth are highly correlated with positive ISM Manufacturing PMI trends and capex-cycle expansion. | news | +5.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-14 | XLY | Increased competition from Chinese EV makers threatens the market share and pricing power of top sector constituents like Tesla and Ford. | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-14 | XLE | A significant reduction in global inventories below the 5-year range is a primary bullish trigger for crude prices. | news | -0.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-14 | XLU | Capacity expansion directly addresses the power demand thesis and renewable energy targets. | news | +6.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-14 | XLB | Production cessation and restructuring at a major chemical player like Corteva indicates margin pressure and shifting chemical spreads. | news | -4.80 | 1 |
| 2026-06-14 | XLE | Crude prices reaching $96 due to geopolitical tension directly increases upstream margins for E&P companies like COP. | news | +2.00 | 1 |