Conviction59.2
SPY weight1.9%
+ Tilt-0.12 pp
= Target1.8%
Current weight (drives NAV)1.8%vs target +0.00 pp
11
Sectors Tracked
2026-05-14
Tracking Since
Day 38
of Daily Monitoring
2026-06-20
Current Date
Alpha vs SPY, since launch
+4.22%
Vega total return minus SPY total return. Positive means Vega is ahead of the index.
Vega NAV
106.08
SPY NAV
101.86
Both NAVs start at 100 on the pilot launch date.
11 sectors
Current sector calls
Each card: SPY weight, plus Vega's tilt, equals Vega's target weight. Conviction and valuation on the side.
Conviction63.3
SPY weight10.0%
+ Tilt-0.33 pp
= Target9.7%
Current weight (drives NAV)9.6%vs target -0.05 pp
Conviction69.1
SPY weight3.1%
+ Tilt+0.02 pp
= Target3.1%
Current weight (drives NAV)3.2%vs target +0.05 pp
Conviction62.8
SPY weight12.0%
+ Tilt-0.44 pp
= Target11.6%
Current weight (drives NAV)11.4%vs target -0.16 pp
Conviction70.3
SPY weight8.8%
+ Tilt+0.14 pp
= Target8.9%
Current weight (drives NAV)8.9%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction79.6
SPY weight37.5%
+ Tilt+3.04 pp
= Target40.5%
Current weight (drives NAV)40.4%vs target -0.10 pp
Conviction53.5
SPY weight4.7%
+ Tilt-0.47 pp
= Target4.2%
Current weight (drives NAV)4.3%vs target +0.08 pp
Conviction63.7
SPY weight1.8%
+ Tilt-0.05 pp
= Target1.8%
Current weight (drives NAV)1.8%vs target +0.04 pp
Conviction64.1
SPY weight2.1%
+ Tilt-0.06 pp
= Target2.1%
Current weight (drives NAV)2.1%vs target +0.01 pp
Conviction59.2
SPY weight8.5%
+ Tilt-0.52 pp
= Target8.0%
Current weight (drives NAV)8.2%vs target +0.18 pp
Conviction53.8
SPY weight9.3%
+ Tilt-0.93 pp
= Target8.3%
Current weight (drives NAV)8.3%vs target -0.07 pp
SPY mix and Vega tilt
Where Vega is above or below SPY
SPY sector weight, Vega's tilt, Vega target weight, and Vega's current weight.
SPY sector weight + Tilt = Vega target weight. Target weight is where Vega wants to be today after applying its sector tilt. Current Vega weight is where the portfolio actually sits today; it can lag the target because Vega only rebalances when the gap is wide enough (rebalance band: 5 pp). Vega NAV is compounded using the current weight, so headline alpha vs SPY reflects executed positioning, not the model's intended target.
| Sector | SPY sector weight | Tilt vs SPY | Vega target weight | Current Vega weight | Vega view | Conviction | Valuation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MaterialsXLB | 1.9% | -0.12 ppLess than SPY | 1.8% | 1.8% | UNDERWEIGHT | 59.2 | Expensive by EV/EBITDA |
| Communication ServicesXLC | 10.0% | -0.33 ppLess than SPY | 9.7% | 9.6% | UNDERWEIGHT | 63.3 | Neutral by PEG |
| EnergyXLE | 3.1% | +0.02 ppMore than SPY | 3.1% | 3.2% | OVERWEIGHT | 69.1 | Cheap by EV/EBITDA |
| FinancialsXLF | 12.0% | -0.44 ppLess than SPY | 11.6% | 11.4% | UNDERWEIGHT | 62.8 | Expensive by P/B |
| IndustrialsXLI | 8.8% | +0.14 ppMore than SPY | 8.9% | 8.9% | OVERWEIGHT | 70.3 | Expensive by EV/EBITDA |
| Information TechnologyXLK | 37.5% | +3.04 ppMore than SPY | 40.5% | 40.4% | OVERWEIGHT | 79.6 | Neutral by PEG |
| Consumer StaplesXLP | 4.7% | -0.47 ppLess than SPY | 4.2% | 4.3% | UNDERWEIGHT | 53.5 | Cheap by P/E |
| Real EstateXLRE | 1.8% | -0.05 ppLess than SPY | 1.8% | 1.8% | NEUTRAL | 63.7 | Cheap by Price/FFO |
| UtilitiesXLU | 2.1% | -0.06 ppLess than SPY | 2.1% | 2.1% | NEUTRAL | 64.1 | Cheap by P/E |
| Health CareXLV | 8.5% | -0.52 ppLess than SPY | 8.0% | 8.2% | UNDERWEIGHT | 59.2 | Cheap by P/E |
| Consumer DiscretionaryXLY | 9.3% | -0.93 ppLess than SPY | 8.3% | 8.3% | UNDERWEIGHT | 53.8 | Neutral by EV/EBITDA |
Recent events
Events noted by sector
Score impact is the model's recorded event effect for the sector.
| Date | Sector | Event noted | Source | Score impact | Sectors affected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | XLF | High-profile AI IPO mandates drive investment banking fees for top-tier capital markets constituents. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLI | Modernization of electric grids and new generating capacity drives demand for electrical equipment and power transformers. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLY | Labor unrest and production halts at GM, Ford, and Stellantis directly impact auto-segment inventory and margins. | news | -7.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLK | Large-scale hardware deployments in cloud data centers drive AMD's data center revenue and signal strong hyperscaler-adjacent demand. | news | +8.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLB | STLD's confirmed guidance of higher earnings and metal margins reflects strong non-residential construction and manufacturing demand. | news | +7.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLF | Best high-yield savings interest rates today, Friday, June 19, 2026: Up to 4.10% APY return | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLU | The restart of nuclear capacity specifically for data center contracts directly validates the AI power demand thesis for merchant generators. | news | +10.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLF | Lowering capital buffers directly increases the capacity for banks to expand lending and return capital to shareholders. | news | +9.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLV | The investigation into German pricing and potential retaliatory tariffs signals escalating global pressure on drug pricing and international trade friction for pharma. | news | -4.80 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLY | OPEC chief dismisses IEA supply glut forecast as 'critical' Strait of Hormuz reopens | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLK | Strategic partnerships for HBM and data centers directly support Nvidia's AI hardware roadmap and semiconductor billings. | news | +7.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLP | The expansion of in-store services enhances Walmart's one-stop-shop appeal, driving foot traffic and supporting volume growth. | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLY | Regulatory clearance for FSD in EU markets expands the addressable market for Tesla's high-margin software services. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLF | Federal investigations into major banks create regulatory risk and potential for significant fines or operational constraints. | news | -4.80 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLU | Mortgage and refinance rates today, Friday, June 19, 2026: Rates are rising | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLRE | Mortgage and refinance rates today, Friday, June 19, 2026: Rates are rising | news | -3.60 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLY | Mortgage and refinance rates today, Friday, June 19, 2026: Rates are rising | news | -2.40 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLRE | Massive incremental demand for accommodations directly drives occupancy and NOI for lodging REITs like Host Hotels. | news | +3.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLF | Mortgage and refinance rates today, Friday, June 19, 2026: Rates are rising | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLV | Upsized IPOs and large Series A rounds indicate strong R&D capacity and investor appetite for the biotech sector. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLE | Critically low global inventories support higher crude spot prices and indicate a tight supply-demand balance. | news | +5.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLC | Inside EA SPORTS UFC 6: Developers on fighter realism, gameplay, and authenticity - Electronic Arts Home Page | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLC | Major sports title launches are key drivers of interactive entertainment engagement and revenue for EA. | news | +3.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLC | EA SPORTS™ UFC® 6 Launches Worldwide Today, Inviting Players Everywhere to Fight Their Fight - EA IR | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLC | High user engagement across Search and YouTube in India drives long-term ad inventory and AI platform scaling for GOOGL. | news | +7.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLB | Delays at Grasberg, a top-tier asset for FCX, impact copper supply volumes and margin expectations. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLY | HELOC and home equity loan rates today, Friday, June 19, 2026: Prospects of higher rates increased following latest Fed meeting | news | -2.40 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLU | HELOC and home equity loan rates today, Friday, June 19, 2026: Prospects of higher rates increased following latest Fed meeting | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLRE | HELOC and home equity loan rates today, Friday, June 19, 2026: Prospects of higher rates increased following latest Fed meeting | news | -2.40 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLV | Accelerated review timelines for priority drugs directly catalyze faster time-to-market for biotech and pharma pipelines. | news | +8.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLF | HELOC and home equity loan rates today, Friday, June 19, 2026: Prospects of higher rates increased following latest Fed meeting | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLY | Brent oil dips below $80 as postponed U.S.-Iran talks temper optimism over ceasefire progress | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLV | Official Action Indicated status signals significant regulatory risk and potential supply disruptions for generic drug manufacturers. | news | -3.60 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLI | Increased demand for backup power and site preparation machinery for data centers drives capex for CAT and CMI. | news | +6.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLK | Export control violations regarding EUV machines could lead to further regulatory restrictions on semiconductor equipment leaders. | news | -3.60 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLY | A retreat in key commodity prices like aluminum reduces input costs for vehicle manufacturing, supporting sector margins. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLK | Indium is a critical material for optical chips in AI data centers, and export restrictions threaten semiconductor production volumes. | news | -6.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLE | The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and return of Iranian supply significantly increases global crude availability, putting downward pressure on WTI and Brent prices. | news | -9.60 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLY | U.S.-Iran deal in photos: ships in the Strait of Hormuz, daily life in Tehran | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-19 | XLRE | New AI infrastructure partnerships directly support the structural acceleration of data center leasing for EQIX. | news | +3.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-19 | XLY | Significant capex increases by the sector's second-largest constituent indicate aggressive expansion in EV production and technology. | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-19 | XLE | Increased production targets from OPEC members like Libya can lead to higher global supply and downward pressure on crude prices. | news | -7.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-19 | XLY | Hormuz relief may not ease the economic toll that's already 'baked in,' analysts warn | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-19 | XLF | Transparency warnings from index providers impact capital markets and the valuation of equity books held by global financial institutions. | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-19 | XLV | Confirmed industry-wide M&A trends are critical for offsetting upcoming patent cliffs for large-cap pharma. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-19 | XLK | Record margins at a top semi-cap equipment provider indicate strong pricing power and high demand for advanced chip manufacturing tools. | news | +9.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-19 | XLP | New leadership in Europe and Latin America/Canada directly impacts execution of smoke-free volume transitions and international growth. | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-19 | XLV | A $1B acquisition by a major biotech player signals strong M&A momentum and portfolio replenishment in the sector. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-19 | XLV | The departure of a top-tier constituent's CFO creates leadership uncertainty during a period of portfolio transition. | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-19 | XLE | Brent oil dips below $80 as postponed U.S.-Iran talks temper optimism over ceasefire progress | news | -2.40 | 1 |