Conviction63.0
SPY weight1.9%
+ Tilt-0.08 pp
= Target1.8%
Current weight (drives NAV)1.8%vs target -0.04 pp
11
Sectors Tracked
2026-05-14
Tracking Since
Day 43
of Daily Monitoring
2026-06-25
Current Date
Alpha vs SPY, since launch
+4.62%
Vega total return minus SPY total return. Positive means Vega is ahead of the index.
Vega NAV
106.73
SPY NAV
102.11
Both NAVs start at 100 on the pilot launch date.
11 sectors
Current sector calls
Each card: SPY weight, plus Vega's tilt, equals Vega's target weight. Conviction and valuation on the side.
Conviction64.6
SPY weight9.7%
+ Tilt-0.32 pp
= Target9.4%
Current weight (drives NAV)9.5%vs target +0.06 pp
Conviction51.2
SPY weight3.1%
+ Tilt-0.39 pp
= Target2.7%
Current weight (drives NAV)2.8%vs target +0.10 pp
Conviction67.6
SPY weight12.0%
+ Tilt-0.15 pp
= Target11.8%
Current weight (drives NAV)11.8%vs target -0.10 pp
Conviction73.9
SPY weight8.8%
+ Tilt+0.28 pp
= Target9.1%
Current weight (drives NAV)8.9%vs target -0.26 pp
Conviction81.2
SPY weight37.6%
+ Tilt+3.07 pp
= Target40.6%
Current weight (drives NAV)41.1%vs target +0.41 pp
Conviction54.3
SPY weight4.8%
+ Tilt-0.50 pp
= Target4.3%
Current weight (drives NAV)4.2%vs target -0.01 pp
Conviction66.6
SPY weight1.9%
+ Tilt-0.04 pp
= Target1.9%
Current weight (drives NAV)1.8%vs target -0.01 pp
Conviction61.8
SPY weight2.2%
+ Tilt-0.12 pp
= Target2.1%
Current weight (drives NAV)2.1%vs target -0.03 pp
Conviction55.9
SPY weight8.8%
+ Tilt-0.82 pp
= Target7.9%
Current weight (drives NAV)7.9%vs target -0.02 pp
Conviction54.9
SPY weight9.3%
+ Tilt-0.93 pp
= Target8.3%
Current weight (drives NAV)8.2%vs target -0.09 pp
SPY mix and Vega tilt
Where Vega is above or below SPY
SPY sector weight, Vega's tilt, Vega target weight, and Vega's current weight.
SPY sector weight + Tilt = Vega target weight. Target weight is where Vega wants to be today after applying its sector tilt. Current Vega weight is where the portfolio actually sits today; it can lag the target because Vega only rebalances when the gap is wide enough (rebalance band: 5 pp). Vega NAV is compounded using the current weight, so headline alpha vs SPY reflects executed positioning, not the model's intended target.
| Sector | SPY sector weight | Tilt vs SPY | Vega target weight | Current Vega weight | Vega view | Conviction | Valuation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MaterialsXLB | 1.9% | -0.08 ppLess than SPY | 1.8% | 1.8% | UNDERWEIGHT | 63.0 | Expensive by EV/EBITDA |
| Communication ServicesXLC | 9.7% | -0.32 ppLess than SPY | 9.4% | 9.5% | UNDERWEIGHT | 64.6 | Cheap by PEG |
| EnergyXLE | 3.1% | -0.39 ppLess than SPY | 2.7% | 2.8% | UNDERWEIGHT | 51.2 | Cheap by EV/EBITDA |
| FinancialsXLF | 12.0% | -0.15 ppLess than SPY | 11.8% | 11.8% | UNDERWEIGHT | 67.6 | Expensive by P/B |
| IndustrialsXLI | 8.8% | +0.28 ppMore than SPY | 9.1% | 8.9% | NEUTRAL | 73.9 | Expensive by EV/EBITDA |
| Information TechnologyXLK | 37.6% | +3.07 ppMore than SPY | 40.6% | 41.1% | OVERWEIGHT | 81.2 | Neutral by PEG |
| Consumer StaplesXLP | 4.8% | -0.50 ppLess than SPY | 4.3% | 4.2% | UNDERWEIGHT | 54.3 | Neutral by P/E |
| Real EstateXLRE | 1.9% | -0.04 ppLess than SPY | 1.9% | 1.8% | NEUTRAL | 66.6 | Neutral by Price/FFO |
| UtilitiesXLU | 2.2% | -0.12 ppLess than SPY | 2.1% | 2.1% | UNDERWEIGHT | 61.8 | Neutral by P/E |
| Health CareXLV | 8.8% | -0.82 ppLess than SPY | 7.9% | 7.9% | UNDERWEIGHT | 55.9 | Neutral by P/E |
| Consumer DiscretionaryXLY | 9.3% | -0.93 ppLess than SPY | 8.3% | 8.2% | UNDERWEIGHT | 54.9 | Cheap by EV/EBITDA |
Recent events
Events noted by sector
Score impact is the model's recorded event effect for the sector.
| Date | Sector | Event noted | Source | Score impact | Sectors affected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | XLC | This massive consolidation of major content libraries directly impacts streaming competition and is facing critical antitrust reviews in the EU and UK. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-25 | XLE | A DOJ probe into retail pricing vs crude costs directly threatens refiner margins (crack spreads) and integrated oil company profitability. | news | -6.40 | 1 |
| 2026-06-25 | XLE | Federal investigations into gasoline pricing and 'gouging' create regulatory headwinds for refiners and integrated majors. | news | -2.40 | 1 |
| 2026-06-25 | XLE | Supply chain disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz impact refiner margins and global crude supply stability. | news | -2.40 | 1 |
| 2026-06-25 | XLE | New gas field development and international expansion directly impact COP's production growth and gas-weighted margins. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-25 | XLF | Passing the stress test confirms capital adequacy and clears the path for banks to increase dividends and share buybacks. | news | +12.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-25 | XLF | Bank of America, Truist and Wells Fargo clear Fed's 2026 stress test as capital rules hold - The Business Journals | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-25 | XLF | Federal Reserve says U.S. banks can withstand $708 billion in losses amid overhaul of capital rules | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-25 | XLF | JPMorgan Chase unveils $50 billion buyback, Goldman Sachs raises dividend after Fed stress test | news | +7.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-25 | XLF | Best CD rates today, Wednesday, June 24, 2026: Earn up to 4% APY | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-25 | XLF | HELOC and home equity loan interest rates today, Wednesday, June 24, 2026: Lenders offer the same products, but different rates | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-25 | XLI | Repurposing industrial capacity for munitions directly impacts defense budget appropriations and contract visibility for major primes. | news | +5.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-25 | XLI | Extended lead times for heavy machinery and engines indicate robust long-term demand in energy and construction sectors. | news | +12.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-25 | XLI | Negotiations Stall Over Costly GE F414 Engines for AMCA Project - India News Network | news | -2.40 | 1 |
| 2026-06-25 | XLI | USA 3x it’s Jet engine prices to ₹200 crore - Lapaas Voice | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-25 | XLI | New electrical equipment software platforms drive high-value grid modernization contracts for GE Vernova. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-25 | XLI | Significant investment in specialized freight infrastructure directly impacts transport segment capacity and revenue potential. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-25 | XLK | Micron's massive earnings beat and capex increase signal strong cyclical demand for memory and AI data-center infrastructure. | news | +12.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-25 | XLK | Qualcomm's pivot to data centers and massive revenue target hike indicates a structural expansion into high-margin AI compute markets. | news | +10.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-25 | XLP | Expansion into higher-margin apparel categories supports Walmart's volume growth and margin mix beyond core groceries. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-25 | XLRE | The narrowing valuation gap and 14.2% total return indicate a recovery in REIT FFO multiples relative to broader equities. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-25 | XLRE | Mortgage and refinance interest rates today, Wednesday, June 24, 2026: Rates are rising today | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-25 | XLRE | Strengthening occupancy and rental growth in retail and healthcare sub-segments are direct drivers of same-store NOI. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-25 | XLRE | Bank of America, Truist and Wells Fargo clear Fed's 2026 stress test as capital rules hold - The Business Journals | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-25 | XLRE | Federal Reserve says U.S. banks can withstand $708 billion in losses amid overhaul of capital rules | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-25 | XLRE | JPMorgan Chase unveils $50 billion buyback, Goldman Sachs raises dividend after Fed stress test | news | +3.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-25 | XLU | The massive capex increase specifically targets surging electricity demand from data centers, a core multi-year load-growth thesis for the sector. | news | +10.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-25 | XLU | The report highlights CEG's nuclear fleet as a primary beneficiary of hyperscale AI power demand, despite valuation concerns. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-25 | XLU | Authorized rate increases directly drive utility EPS and recovery of capital investments. | news | +6.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-25 | XLV | A label expansion for a major Pfizer asset directly impacts revenue for a top-tier sector constituent. | news | +5.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-25 | XLV | This $10.9B acquisition addresses AbbVie's long-term growth and patent cliff risks by adding blockbuster immunology assets. | news | +6.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-25 | XLV | The massive scale of upcoming loss-of-exclusivity represents a structural revenue risk for large-cap pharma constituents. | news | -1.60 | 1 |
| 2026-06-25 | XLV | Successful clinical trial progression and capital raising are key indicators of biotech R&D capacity. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-25 | XLV | Legislative pressure on supply chains forces significant R&D and manufacturing realignment for US biotech and pharma. | news | -2.40 | 1 |
| 2026-06-25 | XLY | New mandatory safety standards create a regulatory 'elimination round' for EV manufacturers in the world's largest market. | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-25 | XLY | Compliance deadlines for remote access revocation could force a temporary halt of new and used vehicle sales in a major US market. | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-25 | XLY | Import tax exemptions for CKD/SKD kits lower production costs for EV manufacturers expanding in the Brazilian market. | news | +3.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-25 | XLY | Legislation easing home construction directly supports long-term demand for home improvement retailers HD and LOW. | news | +7.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-24 | XLB | Asian refiners see little room for Iranian oil, leaving China as key buyer after US waiver | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-24 | XLB | U.S. issues sweeping Iran oil sanctions waivers, unlocking billions in revenue for Tehran | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-24 | XLB | Treasury Department authorizes Iranian oil sales through August | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-24 | XLB | 'We'll see' — Trump hedges on guarantee Iran won't use oil profits to rebuild military | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-24 | XLC | This massive consolidation of major content libraries directly impacts streaming competition and is facing critical antitrust reviews in the EU and UK. | news | -4.80 | 1 |
| 2026-06-24 | XLE | U.S. issues sweeping Iran oil sanctions waivers, unlocking billions in revenue for Tehran | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-24 | XLE | 'We'll see' — Trump hedges on guarantee Iran won't use oil profits to rebuild military | news | -2.40 | 1 |
| 2026-06-24 | XLF | Lowering capital buffers directly increases lending capacity and capital return flexibility for major banks. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-24 | XLF | Liquidity constraints in private credit funds signal potential stress in asset quality and capital market outflows. | news | -9.60 | 1 |
| 2026-06-24 | XLI | Repurposing industrial capacity for munitions directly impacts defense budget appropriations and contract visibility for major primes. | news | +3.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-24 | XLI | Expansion of advanced manufacturing facilities supports the production ramp-up for aerospace and defense components. | news | +3.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-24 | XLK | The multi-year deployment of Instinct GPUs and EPYC CPUs represents a significant enterprise capex commitment for AMD's data center segment. | news | +4.00 | 1 |