Conviction59.0
SPY weight1.9%
+ Tilt-0.12 pp
= Target1.8%
Current weight (drives NAV)1.8%vs target +0.00 pp
11
Sectors Tracked
2026-05-14
Tracking Since
Day 39
of Daily Monitoring
2026-06-21
Current Date
Alpha vs SPY, since launch
+4.30%
Vega total return minus SPY total return. Positive means Vega is ahead of the index.
Vega NAV
107.22
SPY NAV
102.92
Both NAVs start at 100 on the pilot launch date.
11 sectors
Current sector calls
Each card: SPY weight, plus Vega's tilt, equals Vega's target weight. Conviction and valuation on the side.
Conviction64.1
SPY weight10.0%
+ Tilt-0.30 pp
= Target9.7%
Current weight (drives NAV)9.6%vs target -0.08 pp
Conviction65.2
SPY weight3.1%
+ Tilt-0.07 pp
= Target3.0%
Current weight (drives NAV)3.2%vs target +0.14 pp
Conviction65.2
SPY weight12.0%
+ Tilt-0.27 pp
= Target11.8%
Current weight (drives NAV)11.4%vs target -0.33 pp
Conviction71.1
SPY weight8.8%
+ Tilt+0.17 pp
= Target8.9%
Current weight (drives NAV)8.9%vs target -0.03 pp
Conviction79.5
SPY weight37.5%
+ Tilt+2.92 pp
= Target40.4%
Current weight (drives NAV)40.4%vs target +0.02 pp
Conviction52.2
SPY weight4.7%
+ Tilt-0.53 pp
= Target4.2%
Current weight (drives NAV)4.3%vs target +0.14 pp
Conviction63.3
SPY weight1.8%
+ Tilt-0.06 pp
= Target1.8%
Current weight (drives NAV)1.8%vs target +0.05 pp
Conviction63.4
SPY weight2.1%
+ Tilt-0.07 pp
= Target2.1%
Current weight (drives NAV)2.1%vs target +0.02 pp
Conviction58.9
SPY weight8.5%
+ Tilt-0.57 pp
= Target7.9%
Current weight (drives NAV)8.2%vs target +0.23 pp
Conviction55.8
SPY weight9.3%
+ Tilt-0.82 pp
= Target8.4%
Current weight (drives NAV)8.3%vs target -0.18 pp
SPY mix and Vega tilt
Where Vega is above or below SPY
SPY sector weight, Vega's tilt, Vega target weight, and Vega's current weight.
SPY sector weight + Tilt = Vega target weight. Target weight is where Vega wants to be today after applying its sector tilt. Current Vega weight is where the portfolio actually sits today; it can lag the target because Vega only rebalances when the gap is wide enough (rebalance band: 5 pp). Vega NAV is compounded using the current weight, so headline alpha vs SPY reflects executed positioning, not the model's intended target.
| Sector | SPY sector weight | Tilt vs SPY | Vega target weight | Current Vega weight | Vega view | Conviction | Valuation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MaterialsXLB | 1.9% | -0.12 ppLess than SPY | 1.8% | 1.8% | UNDERWEIGHT | 59.0 | Expensive by EV/EBITDA |
| Communication ServicesXLC | 10.0% | -0.30 ppLess than SPY | 9.7% | 9.6% | UNDERWEIGHT | 64.1 | Neutral by PEG |
| EnergyXLE | 3.1% | -0.07 ppLess than SPY | 3.0% | 3.2% | OVERWEIGHT | 65.2 | Cheap by EV/EBITDA |
| FinancialsXLF | 12.0% | -0.27 ppLess than SPY | 11.8% | 11.4% | UNDERWEIGHT | 65.2 | Expensive by P/B |
| IndustrialsXLI | 8.8% | +0.17 ppMore than SPY | 8.9% | 8.9% | OVERWEIGHT | 71.1 | Expensive by EV/EBITDA |
| Information TechnologyXLK | 37.5% | +2.92 ppMore than SPY | 40.4% | 40.4% | OVERWEIGHT | 79.5 | Neutral by PEG |
| Consumer StaplesXLP | 4.7% | -0.53 ppLess than SPY | 4.2% | 4.3% | UNDERWEIGHT | 52.2 | Cheap by P/E |
| Real EstateXLRE | 1.8% | -0.06 ppLess than SPY | 1.8% | 1.8% | NEUTRAL | 63.3 | Cheap by Price/FFO |
| UtilitiesXLU | 2.1% | -0.07 ppLess than SPY | 2.1% | 2.1% | NEUTRAL | 63.4 | Neutral by P/E |
| Health CareXLV | 8.5% | -0.57 ppLess than SPY | 7.9% | 8.2% | UNDERWEIGHT | 58.9 | Cheap by P/E |
| Consumer DiscretionaryXLY | 9.3% | -0.82 ppLess than SPY | 8.4% | 8.3% | UNDERWEIGHT | 55.8 | Cheap by EV/EBITDA |
Recent events
Events noted by sector
Score impact is the model's recorded event effect for the sector.
| Date | Sector | Event noted | Source | Score impact | Sectors affected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | XLI | Increased demand for backup power and site preparation machinery for data centers drives capex for CAT and CMI. | news | +5.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-21 | XLK | The acquisition of MEXT targets AI memory bottlenecks, directly enhancing AMD's competitive position in the high-growth AI data-center semiconductor market. | news | +11.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-21 | XLI | Modernization of electric grids and new generating capacity drives demand for electrical equipment and power transformers. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-21 | XLF | Best high-yield savings interest rates today, Friday, June 19, 2026: Up to 4.10% APY return | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-21 | XLC | Inside EA SPORTS UFC 6: Developers on fighter realism, gameplay, and authenticity - Electronic Arts Home Page | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-21 | XLE | The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and return of Iranian supply significantly increases global crude availability, putting downward pressure on WTI and Brent prices. | news | -19.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-21 | XLF | Federal investigations into major banks create regulatory risk and potential for significant fines or operational constraints. | news | -2.40 | 1 |
| 2026-06-21 | XLRE | Major M&A activity in the self-storage sub-sector consolidates market share and impacts portfolio-wide occupancy and NOI. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-21 | XLRE | Massive incremental demand for accommodations directly drives occupancy and NOI for lodging REITs like Host Hotels. | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-21 | XLP | Leadership changes in regional segments directly impact the execution of PM's smoke-free transition and international volume growth. | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-21 | XLF | Lowering capital buffers directly increases the capacity for banks to expand lending and return capital to shareholders. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-21 | XLY | Regulatory clearance for FSD in EU markets expands the addressable market for Tesla's high-margin software services. | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-21 | XLK | Strategic partnerships for HBM and data centers directly support Nvidia's AI hardware roadmap and semiconductor billings. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-21 | XLU | Mortgage and refinance rates today, Friday, June 19, 2026: Rates are rising | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-21 | XLK | Large-scale hardware deployments in cloud data centers drive AMD's data center revenue and signal strong hyperscaler-adjacent demand. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-21 | XLF | Mortgage and refinance rates today, Friday, June 19, 2026: Rates are rising | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-21 | XLP | Walmart's guidance is a primary indicator for mass retail volume trends and consumer health amid inflationary pressures. | news | -2.40 | 1 |
| 2026-06-21 | XLB | STLD's confirmed guidance of higher earnings and metal margins reflects strong non-residential construction and manufacturing demand. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-21 | XLK | Export control violations regarding EUV machines could lead to further regulatory restrictions on semiconductor equipment leaders. | news | -6.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-21 | XLU | Sempra's infrastructure strategy aligns with gas-fired generation and export dynamics which impact sector-wide gas pass-through. | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLU | The restart of Three Mile Island provides carbon-free baseload power to meet surging AI and data center demand, supporting the merchant power thesis. | news | +5.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLB | Rising production costs at FCX directly impact margins, a key component of the copper-intensive mining macro trigger. | news | -2.40 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLE | Continued drilling activity and capital deployment in the Wolfcamp shale directly support the US rig count and E&P production thesis. | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLP | Walmart's guidance is a primary indicator for mass retail volume trends and consumer health amid inflationary pressures. | news | -6.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLF | The acquisition expands AXP's merchant ecosystem and lifestyle services, potentially driving higher transaction volumes and credit growth. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLE | U.S.-Iran deal in photos: ships in the Strait of Hormuz, daily life in Tehran | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLK | Strategic M&A in enterprise software expands Autodesk's footprint in industrial IT services and recurring revenue. | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLY | Strong performance and raised guidance from a top off-price retailer indicates resilient consumer spending and retail sales strength. | news | +8.80 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLE | Hormuz relief may not ease the economic toll that's already 'baked in,' analysts warn | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLE | Brent oil dips below $80 as postponed U.S.-Iran talks temper optimism over ceasefire progress | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLU | Best high-yield savings interest rates today, Friday, June 19, 2026: Up to 4.10% APY return | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLRE | Direct bank lending to REITs improves refinancing flexibility and capital access, easing credit tightness. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLC | A massive media merger of this scale significantly impacts content consolidation and streaming competitiveness for WBD. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLV | A major M&A deal by a top-3 sector constituent (ABBV) signals strong biotech funding and pipeline replenishment. | news | +6.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLP | Leadership changes in regional segments directly impact the execution of PM's smoke-free transition and international volume growth. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLE | OPEC chief dismisses IEA supply glut forecast as 'critical' Strait of Hormuz reopens | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLK | The termination of a major data center deal impacts hyperscaler infrastructure strategy and cloud growth trajectories. | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLF | High-profile AI IPO mandates significantly boost investment banking fees and capital markets activity for top-tier banks. | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLB | Delays at Grasberg, a top-tier asset for FCX, impact copper supply volumes and margin expectations. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLC | High user engagement across Search and YouTube in India drives long-term ad inventory and AI platform scaling for GOOGL. | news | +7.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLY | A retreat in key commodity prices like aluminum reduces input costs for vehicle manufacturing, supporting sector margins. | news | +3.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLK | Large-scale hardware deployments in cloud data centers drive AMD's data center revenue and signal strong hyperscaler-adjacent demand. | news | +8.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLY | Brent oil dips below $80 as postponed U.S.-Iran talks temper optimism over ceasefire progress | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLI | Increased demand for backup power and site preparation machinery for data centers drives capex for CAT and CMI. | news | +6.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLK | Indium is a critical material for optical chips in AI data centers, and export restrictions threaten semiconductor production volumes. | news | -6.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLU | The restart of nuclear capacity specifically for data center contracts directly validates the AI power demand thesis for merchant generators. | news | +10.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLY | Regulatory clearance for FSD in EU markets expands the addressable market for Tesla's high-margin software services. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLF | Federal investigations into major banks create regulatory risk and potential for significant fines or operational constraints. | news | -4.80 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLC | Inside EA SPORTS UFC 6: Developers on fighter realism, gameplay, and authenticity - Electronic Arts Home Page | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | XLC | Major sports title launches are key drivers of interactive entertainment engagement and revenue for EA. | news | +5.00 | 1 |