Conviction58.0
SPY weight1.9%
+ Tilt-0.12 pp
= Target1.8%
Current weight (drives NAV)1.8%vs target +0.00 pp
11
Sectors Tracked
2026-05-14
Tracking Since
Day 35
of Daily Monitoring
2026-06-17
Current Date
Alpha vs SPY, since launch
+3.47%
Vega total return minus SPY total return. Positive means Vega is ahead of the index.
Vega NAV
103.46
SPY NAV
99.99
Both NAVs start at 100 on the pilot launch date.
11 sectors
Current sector calls
Each card: SPY weight, plus Vega's tilt, equals Vega's target weight. Conviction and valuation on the side.
Conviction59.2
SPY weight10.2%
+ Tilt-0.56 pp
= Target9.6%
Current weight (drives NAV)9.6%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction70.8
SPY weight3.1%
+ Tilt+0.08 pp
= Target3.2%
Current weight (drives NAV)3.2%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction60.8
SPY weight12.0%
+ Tilt-0.52 pp
= Target11.4%
Current weight (drives NAV)11.4%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction71.0
SPY weight8.7%
+ Tilt+0.24 pp
= Target8.9%
Current weight (drives NAV)8.9%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction79.0
SPY weight37.2%
+ Tilt+3.17 pp
= Target40.4%
Current weight (drives NAV)40.4%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction53.6
SPY weight4.7%
+ Tilt-0.44 pp
= Target4.3%
Current weight (drives NAV)4.3%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction64.1
SPY weight1.9%
+ Tilt-0.04 pp
= Target1.8%
Current weight (drives NAV)1.8%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction63.6
SPY weight2.1%
+ Tilt-0.05 pp
= Target2.1%
Current weight (drives NAV)2.1%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction61.0
SPY weight8.5%
+ Tilt-0.36 pp
= Target8.2%
Current weight (drives NAV)8.2%vs target +0.00 pp
Conviction49.6
SPY weight9.4%
+ Tilt-1.15 pp
= Target8.3%
Current weight (drives NAV)8.3%vs target +0.00 pp
SPY mix and Vega tilt
Where Vega is above or below SPY
SPY sector weight, Vega's tilt, Vega target weight, and Vega's current weight.
SPY sector weight + Tilt = Vega target weight. Target weight is where Vega wants to be today after applying its sector tilt. Current Vega weight is where the portfolio actually sits today; it can lag the target because Vega only rebalances when the gap is wide enough (rebalance band: 5 pp). Vega NAV is compounded using the current weight, so headline alpha vs SPY reflects executed positioning, not the model's intended target.
| Sector | SPY sector weight | Tilt vs SPY | Vega target weight | Current Vega weight | Vega view | Conviction | Valuation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MaterialsXLB | 1.9% | -0.12 ppLess than SPY | 1.8% | 1.8% | UNDERWEIGHT | 58.0 | Expensive by EV/EBITDA |
| Communication ServicesXLC | 10.2% | -0.56 ppLess than SPY | 9.6% | 9.6% | UNDERWEIGHT | 59.2 | Neutral by PEG |
| EnergyXLE | 3.1% | +0.08 ppMore than SPY | 3.2% | 3.2% | OVERWEIGHT | 70.8 | Cheap by EV/EBITDA |
| FinancialsXLF | 12.0% | -0.52 ppLess than SPY | 11.4% | 11.4% | UNDERWEIGHT | 60.8 | Expensive by P/B |
| IndustrialsXLI | 8.7% | +0.24 ppMore than SPY | 8.9% | 8.9% | OVERWEIGHT | 71.0 | Expensive by EV/EBITDA |
| Information TechnologyXLK | 37.2% | +3.17 ppMore than SPY | 40.4% | 40.4% | OVERWEIGHT | 79.0 | Neutral by PEG |
| Consumer StaplesXLP | 4.7% | -0.44 ppLess than SPY | 4.3% | 4.3% | UNDERWEIGHT | 53.6 | Neutral by P/E |
| Real EstateXLRE | 1.9% | -0.04 ppLess than SPY | 1.8% | 1.8% | NEUTRAL | 64.1 | Neutral by Price/FFO |
| UtilitiesXLU | 2.1% | -0.05 ppLess than SPY | 2.1% | 2.1% | NEUTRAL | 63.6 | Cheap by P/E |
| Health CareXLV | 8.5% | -0.36 ppLess than SPY | 8.2% | 8.2% | UNDERWEIGHT | 61.0 | Cheap by P/E |
| Consumer DiscretionaryXLY | 9.4% | -1.15 ppLess than SPY | 8.3% | 8.3% | UNDERWEIGHT | 49.6 | Cheap by EV/EBITDA |
Recent events
Events noted by sector
Score impact is the model's recorded event effect for the sector.
| Date | Sector | Event noted | Source | Score impact | Sectors affected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | XLI | Mortgage rates are now falling but demand is still weaker | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-17 | XLK | Nvidia's massive capital raise supports continued R&D and production scaling for AI GPUs, a core driver of sector revenue. | news | +10.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-17 | XLF | High-profile IPO mandates drive investment banking fee revenue for top-tier capital markets constituents. | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-17 | XLU | Mortgage rates are now falling but demand is still weaker | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-17 | XLE | New international production deals expand the E&P footprint and long-term supply capacity for integrated majors. | news | +5.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-17 | XLC | Omnicom's earnings beat and core growth serve as a primary indicator for the health of the global advertising spend environment. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-17 | XLC | Regulatory concessions in major M&A activity signal a path forward for sector consolidation and shifting streaming market share. | news | +3.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-17 | XLU | Rate case filings are the primary mechanism for regulated utilities to secure ROE and rate-base growth approvals. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-17 | XLB | Silver prices today, Wednesday, June 17, 2026: Up 9.9% since last week | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-17 | XLF | Mortgage rates are now falling but demand is still weaker | news | -2.40 | 1 |
| 2026-06-17 | XLI | New international contracts for electrical equipment directly support the growth thesis for GE's power segment. | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-17 | XLE | A contraction in global inventory buffers is a bullish signal for crude prices as it indicates a tighter supply-demand balance. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-17 | XLB | Mortgage rates are now falling but demand is still weaker | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-17 | XLRE | Mortgage rates are now falling but demand is still weaker | news | +0.60 | 1 |
| 2026-06-17 | XLRE | The expansion of AI infrastructure partnerships directly supports the structural acceleration of data center leasing for EQIX. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-17 | XLY | Mortgage rates are now falling but demand is still weaker | news | -2.40 | 1 |
| 2026-06-17 | XLI | A 71% surge in orders for GE Vernova indicates strong demand for electrical equipment and power infrastructure, a key industrial sub-segment. | news | +11.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-17 | XLV | New generic launches drive volume and impact the pricing landscape for hospital-administered injectables. | news | -0.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-17 | XLY | Regulatory action against AMZN's advertising business threatens a high-margin revenue stream for the sector's largest constituent. | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-17 | XLE | Tightening sanctions on a major global producer typically restricts supply, providing upward pressure on crude spot prices. | news | +6.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-17 | XLE | Improved recovery rates and focus on major gas plays support upstream margins for gas-weighted E&Ps. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-17 | XLRE | Mortgage and refinance interest rates today, Wednesday, June 17, 2026: Fixed rates continue to fall | news | +3.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-17 | XLU | Mortgage and refinance interest rates today, Wednesday, June 17, 2026: Fixed rates continue to fall | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-17 | XLB | HELOC and home equity loan interest rates today, Wednesday, June 17, 2026: Rate shopping is key, no matter if rates are rising or falling | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-17 | XLB | Mortgage and refinance interest rates today, Wednesday, June 17, 2026: Fixed rates continue to fall | news | +2.00 | 2 |
| 2026-06-16 | XLB | U.S. crude drops below $80 for the first time since March as Iran deal is set to open Hormuz Strait | news | -3.60 | 1 |
| 2026-06-16 | XLI | New international contracts for electrical equipment directly support the growth thesis for GE's power segment. | news | +3.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-16 | XLB | Gold prices today, Monday, June 15: Gold moves higher following U.S., Iran ceasefire agreement | news | +3.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-16 | XLE | A potential deal with Iran would increase global supply, directly lowering crude spot prices and impacting E&P margins. | news | -4.80 | 1 |
| 2026-06-16 | XLB | World leaders welcome U.S.-Iran deal as Europe signals sanctions relief, urges Hormuz reopening | news | -6.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-16 | XLI | Caterpillar's earnings beat and raised targets signal strong demand for heavy machinery and infrastructure equipment. | news | +3.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-16 | XLB | Caterpillar’s Revenue Hit $17.4 Billion in Q1: What the Income Statement Reveals for Investors - TIKR.com | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-16 | XLE | U.S. crude drops below $80 for the first time since March as Iran deal is set to open Hormuz Strait | news | -2.40 | 1 |
| 2026-06-16 | XLV | Expansion of Medicare price negotiations creates a long-term revenue overhang for major pharma constituents like LLY and MRK. | news | -0.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-16 | XLB | CRH's earnings beat reflects strong demand and pricing power in the aggregates and construction materials market. | news | +7.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-16 | XLE | World leaders welcome U.S.-Iran deal as Europe signals sanctions relief, urges Hormuz reopening | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-16 | XLP | Aggressive promotional events drive volume growth and market share for the sector's largest constituent. | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-16 | XLE | Tentative deal on ending the Iran war sends stocks soaring, oil prices to lowest levels in months - Barchart.com | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-16 | XLRE | New asset acquisitions in the experiential space drive net operating income and diversification for specialized REITs. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-16 | XLE | Oil prices drop to cheapest level since early days of Mideast conflict | news | -2.40 | 1 |
| 2026-06-16 | XLB | Oil prices drop to cheapest level since early days of Mideast conflict | news | -2.40 | 1 |
| 2026-06-16 | XLC | Electronic Arts to expand in-game ads with launch of ‘EA Advertising’ - NewsNation | news | +6.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-16 | XLRE | The expansion of AI infrastructure partnerships directly supports the structural acceleration of data center leasing for EQIX. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-16 | XLY | Regulatory scrutiny of Tesla's FSD technology poses a direct risk to the company's high-margin software revenue and brand reputation. | news | -1.20 | 1 |
| 2026-06-16 | XLE | Rising crude prices and inventory concerns directly impact the margins and valuation of the sector's largest constituent, XOM. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-16 | XLV | New FDA approvals for top-tier constituents like AbbVie are direct catalysts for revenue growth in the pharma segment. | news | +5.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-16 | XLF | Significant capital deployment into real estate assets expands the firm's investment management and credit-linked book. | news | +4.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-16 | XLB | Dollar near 10-day low as US, Iran reach peace deal | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-16 | XLF | High-profile IPO mandates drive investment banking fee revenue for top-tier capital markets constituents. | news | +1.00 | 1 |
| 2026-06-15 | XLE | A potential deal with Iran would increase global supply, directly lowering crude spot prices and impacting E&P margins. | news | -7.20 | 1 |