Conviction52.0
SPY weight1.9%
+ Tilt+0.11 pp
= Target2.0%
Current weight (drives NAV)1.9%vs target -0.11 pp
Alpha vs SPY, since launch
+0.00%
Vega total return minus SPY total return. Positive means Vega is ahead of the index.
Vega NAV
100.00
SPY NAV
100.00
Both NAVs start at 100 on the pilot launch date.
11 sectors
Current sector calls
Each card: SPY weight, plus Vega's tilt, equals Vega's target weight. Conviction and valuation on the side.
Conviction48.7
SPY weight10.8%
+ Tilt-0.28 pp
= Target10.5%
Current weight (drives NAV)10.8%vs target +0.28 pp
Conviction53.8
SPY weight3.3%
+ Tilt+0.05 pp
= Target3.3%
Current weight (drives NAV)3.3%vs target -0.05 pp
Conviction54.2
SPY weight11.3%
+ Tilt+0.19 pp
= Target11.5%
Current weight (drives NAV)11.3%vs target -0.19 pp
Conviction52.7
SPY weight8.4%
+ Tilt+0.05 pp
= Target8.5%
Current weight (drives NAV)8.4%vs target -0.05 pp
Conviction53.6
SPY weight37.5%
+ Tilt+0.46 pp
= Target37.9%
Current weight (drives NAV)37.5%vs target -0.46 pp
Conviction51.8
SPY weight4.8%
+ Tilt-0.01 pp
= Target4.8%
Current weight (drives NAV)4.8%vs target +0.01 pp
Conviction47.5
SPY weight1.8%
+ Tilt+0.17 pp
= Target2.0%
Current weight (drives NAV)1.8%vs target -0.17 pp
Conviction46.6
SPY weight2.2%
+ Tilt-0.09 pp
= Target2.1%
Current weight (drives NAV)2.2%vs target +0.09 pp
Conviction51.1
SPY weight8.2%
+ Tilt-0.06 pp
= Target8.2%
Current weight (drives NAV)8.2%vs target +0.06 pp
Conviction45.8
SPY weight9.7%
+ Tilt-0.47 pp
= Target9.2%
Current weight (drives NAV)9.7%vs target +0.47 pp
SPY mix and Vega tilt
Where Vega is above or below SPY
SPY sector weight, Vega's tilt, Vega target weight, and Vega's current weight.
SPY sector weight + Tilt = Vega target weight. Target weight is where Vega wants to be today after applying its sector tilt. Current Vega weight is where the portfolio actually sits today; it can lag the target because Vega only rebalances when the gap is wide enough (rebalance band: 5 pp). Vega NAV is compounded using the current weight, so headline alpha vs SPY reflects executed positioning, not the model's intended target.
| Sector | SPY sector weight | Tilt vs SPY | Vega target weight | Current Vega weight | Vega view | Conviction | Valuation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MaterialsXLB | 1.9% | +0.11 ppMore than SPY | 2.0% | 1.9% | - | 52.0 | - |
| Communication ServicesXLC | 10.8% | -0.28 ppLess than SPY | 10.5% | 10.8% | - | 48.7 | - |
| EnergyXLE | 3.3% | +0.05 ppMore than SPY | 3.3% | 3.3% | - | 53.8 | - |
| FinancialsXLF | 11.3% | +0.19 ppMore than SPY | 11.5% | 11.3% | - | 54.2 | - |
| IndustrialsXLI | 8.4% | +0.05 ppMore than SPY | 8.5% | 8.4% | - | 52.7 | - |
| Information TechnologyXLK | 37.5% | +0.46 ppMore than SPY | 37.9% | 37.5% | - | 53.6 | - |
| Consumer StaplesXLP | 4.8% | -0.01 ppLess than SPY | 4.8% | 4.8% | - | 51.8 | - |
| Real EstateXLRE | 1.8% | +0.17 ppMore than SPY | 2.0% | 1.8% | - | 47.5 | - |
| UtilitiesXLU | 2.2% | -0.09 ppLess than SPY | 2.1% | 2.2% | - | 46.6 | - |
| Health CareXLV | 8.2% | -0.06 ppLess than SPY | 8.2% | 8.2% | - | 51.1 | - |
| Consumer DiscretionaryXLY | 9.7% | -0.47 ppLess than SPY | 9.2% | 9.7% | - | 45.8 | - |
Recent events
Events noted by sector
Score impact is the model's recorded event effect for the sector.
| Date | Sector | Event noted | Source | Score impact | Sectors affected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | XLB | Record copper prices directly benefit major sector constituents like FCX and improve mining margins. | news | +6.79 | 1 |
| 2026-05-15 | XLB | Strong revenue growth in construction materials (CRH) signals robust US construction spending. | news | +3.54 | 1 |
| 2026-05-15 | XLRE | The 30-year Treasury yield just broke to its highest level in almost 20 years | news | -17.09 | 2 |
| 2026-05-15 | XLB | 30-year Treasury yield tops 5.1%, highest in nearly a year | news | -2.40 | 1 |
| 2026-05-15 | XLB | Bond market believes Fed behind the curve on inflation as Warsh takes over | news | -1.19 | 1 |
| 2026-05-15 | XLB | As the top gold constituent (NEM), superior cost control and production scale drive sector profitability. | news | +3.84 | 1 |
| 2026-05-15 | XLB | Strong performance in agricultural chemicals reflects healthy demand and pricing power in the chemicals sub-segment. | news | +3.48 | 1 |
| 2026-05-15 | XLC | WBD's significant earnings miss and revenue decline reflect broader pressures on streaming profitability and traditional media ad spend. | news | -7.41 | 1 |
| 2026-05-15 | XLE | A significant weekly draw in crude stocks below the 5-year range is a primary bullish trigger for the sector. | news | +3.94 | 1 |
| 2026-05-15 | XLE | Geopolitical conflict in Iran directly threatens supply and accelerates global inventory depletion, supporting higher crude prices. | news | +5.77 | 1 |
| 2026-05-15 | XLE | How China and U.S. eased the Middle East oil shock and kept prices from spiking even higher | news | -2.40 | 1 |
| 2026-05-15 | XLE | Oil prices jump after Trump says he is losing patience with Iran | news | +3.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-15 | XLE | China will buy more U.S. oil because it is a natural trade partner, says Energy Secretary Wright | news | +3.99 | 1 |
| 2026-05-15 | XLE | Approval of the Greater Ekofisk project increases production capacity and gas delivery potential for a top sector constituent. | news | +3.95 | 1 |
| 2026-05-15 | XLF | JPM's earnings beat driven by robust NII directly validates the NIM trajectory and rate environment thesis for the sector's largest bank. | news | +4.93 | 1 |
| 2026-05-15 | XLF | As the second-largest US bank, BAC's quarterly results are a primary driver of sector-wide NIM and credit quality trends. | news | +0.58 | 1 |
| 2026-05-15 | XLF | Bond market believes Fed behind the curve on inflation as Warsh takes over | news | +2.97 | 1 |
| 2026-05-15 | XLF | The 30-year Treasury yield just broke to its highest level in almost 20 years | news | +5.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-15 | XLF | 30-year Treasury yield tops 5.1%, highest in nearly a year | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-15 | XLF | Stephen Miran exits the Fed. How he set the stage for Kevin Warsh. | news | +2.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-15 | XLF | Record profits in wealth management and capital markets expansion signal strong revenue growth for major investment banks. | news | +3.89 | 1 |
| 2026-05-15 | XLI | Increased revenue and margin guidance for electrical equipment (GEV) driven by data center infrastructure directly supports the industrial capex thesis. | news | +5.84 | 1 |
| 2026-05-15 | XLI | Accelerating engine orders and services activity at GE Aerospace are leading indicators for the aircraft delivery cycle. | news | +2.97 | 1 |
| 2026-05-15 | XLI | New missile defense contracts and expanded radar production provide multi-year revenue visibility for defense primes like RTX. | news | +3.87 | 1 |
| 2026-05-15 | XLI | Specific DoD contract awards for maritime systems support the defense budget and program funding thesis. | news | +2.99 | 1 |
| 2026-05-15 | XLK | Applied Materials' bullish guidance reflects increased production capacity by chipmakers, directly impacting semiconductor billings and hyperscaler capex. | news | +6.95 | 1 |
| 2026-05-15 | XLK | Diplomatic engagement regarding China trade directly impacts Nvidia's addressable market and global semiconductor sales volumes. | news | +2.90 | 1 |
| 2026-05-15 | XLK | The successful $95B valuation IPO of a major AI chip designer signals robust capital flow and demand within the AI infrastructure segment. | news | +3.98 | 1 |
| 2026-05-15 | XLK | A major institutional stake based on Azure and M365 durability reinforces the positive outlook for enterprise cloud revenue growth. | news | +3.99 | 1 |
| 2026-05-15 | XLP | Vertical integration into dairy production supports Walmart's high-margin private label brands (Great Value, Member's Mark) and price competitiveness. | news | +7.63 | 1 |
| 2026-05-15 | XLP | Confirmed fiscal year results showing 5% revenue growth and faster operating income growth indicate strong volume trends and margin expansion. | news | +2.68 | 1 |
| 2026-05-15 | XLP | Monster Beverage: Q1 Earnings Snapshot - kens5.com | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-15 | XLP | PepsiCo Declares Quarterly Dividend - PR Newswire | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-15 | XLRE | Strong earnings and raised FFO guidance across 60% of REITs indicate robust property fundamentals despite high interest rates. | news | +5.88 | 1 |
| 2026-05-15 | XLRE | Higher occupancy and income in coastal markets like California drive core FFO growth for residential REITs. | news | +3.93 | 1 |
| 2026-05-15 | XLRE | Welltower and Ventas are using scale and data science to secure off-market deals, driving double-digit NOI growth in healthcare. | news | +7.84 | 1 |
| 2026-05-15 | XLRE | Industrial leader PLD is pivoting to data center 'powered shells', tapping into high-growth AI infrastructure demand. | news | +5.94 | 1 |
| 2026-05-15 | XLRE | Bond market believes Fed behind the curve on inflation as Warsh takes over | news | -4.74 | 1 |
| 2026-05-15 | XLRE | 30-year Treasury yield tops 5.1%, highest in nearly a year | news | -12.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-15 | XLRE | Record construction spending and double-digit revenue growth at EQIX, DLR, and AMT confirm structural AI-driven demand. | news | +6.94 | 1 |
| 2026-05-15 | XLU | CEG's massive revenue jump and guidance raise are driven by nuclear production tax credits and surging AI data center demand. | news | +3.65 | 1 |
| 2026-05-15 | XLU | The 8% capex increase is specifically targeted at supporting 63 GW of incremental load, primarily from data centers. | news | +4.95 | 1 |
| 2026-05-15 | XLU | Large-scale equity financing is critical for funding the utility's expanded capex cycle but can be dilutive to EPS. | news | -3.47 | 1 |
| 2026-05-15 | XLU | 30-year Treasury yield tops 5.1%, highest in nearly a year | news | -5.99 | 1 |
| 2026-05-15 | XLU | The 30-year Treasury yield just broke to its highest level in almost 20 years | news | -8.40 | 2 |
| 2026-05-15 | XLV | Prescription growth for Lilly's oral GLP-1 Foundayo directly impacts the revenue trajectory of the sector's largest constituent. | news | +6.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-15 | XLV | FDA approval for a new product is a direct catalyst for biotech revenue and market positioning. | news | +4.99 | 1 |
| 2026-05-15 | XLV | Massive restructuring and layoffs are a direct response to generic-related revenue declines and patent cliffs. | news | -2.38 | 1 |
| 2026-05-15 | XLV | Consolidation and workforce reduction following a multi-billion dollar M&A deal reflects sector-wide M&A integration trends. | news | +0.00 | 1 |
| 2026-05-15 | XLV | 30-year Treasury yield tops 5.1%, highest in nearly a year | news | -4.80 | 1 |